08/20/2020 - 23:41
- Clarín.com
- Opinion
In the strictest secrecy, the Central Bank began to negotiate the possibility of converting China's swap into dollars to strengthen Argentina's depressed reserves. The first polls were in charge of Miguel Pesce and the intention would be to activate a part of the monetary agreement between both nations.
The exceptional measure is explored in the face of the deterioration of Argentina's liquid reserves. This, and nothing else, is what makes the dollar rise.
It would try to obtain an additional 3,000 million greenbacks. Now in the treasury of the BCRA there would only be freely available about 5,000 million dollars. The negotiation arose after the fight that Pesce had with Minister Martín Guzmán. As Clarín anticipated , the head of the BCRA presented Alberto Fernández with a proposal to cancel the purchase of a savings dollar for 200 dollars to treasure. Pesce wants to avoid a devaluation and considers it necessary to tighten the exchange rate as much as possible.
Savings dollar sales jumped to $ 800 million in July and would be $ 1 billion in August . In July, 4 million savers bought tickets and in August - according to the current projection - there would be about 5 million people. In January they only wanted half a million dollars.
But the head of the Palacio de Hacienda opposed Miguel Pesce. Guzmán had several arguments in Olivos to contradict the BCRA. It was a brave counterpoint. Now, Pesce is looking for another alternative: he would have already been in contact with Yi Gang, the powerful head of the Central Bank of China. The operation is delicate and requires urgent processing: it reflects the magnitude of the currency crisis.
Also - almost certainly - a political dialogue between the President and Xi Jinping. A conversation that will undoubtedly upset Washington on the eve of negotiations with the IMF. Argentina has already used the save twice. First it was Cristina, during the 2009 crisis and the exchange run that Martín Redrado controlled. Sergio Massa - Chief of Staff at the time - and Redrado managed the loan.
Later it was Mauricio Macri who resorted to Chinese help. Federico Sturzenegger asked Beijing for $ 3 billion. It was in 2015, when the exchange market was released. Sturzenegger's policy ended Macri's political aspirations: the dollar went from 17 to 63 pesos at the end of the mandate and with exchange controls.
Guzmán stopped Pesce's initial idea of canceling the savings dollar. It was on Saturday, at the Quinta de Olivos, where he made firm proposals. Until that noon, the Government evaluated the drastic exchange rate measure. The Chief of Staff agreed with the BCRA.
But - as Clarín anticipated - Alberto Fernández doubted: he fears the political impact of canceling the purchase of tickets. For this reason, it enabled a round of consultations with its collaborators. Guzmán went with the end caps: he advised against the BCRA measure as he had done a few days before with Alberto.
First, he warned that closing the purchase of savings dollar could make the blue bill jump: in Economy there was talk of a value of 150 pesos.
The minister also warned - at the meeting - that the decision would interfere with the closing of the foreign debt agreement. Guzmán demanded the following: a truce until August 28, the closing date for the "wolves" of Wall Street to accept the payment plan. The intention is to achieve adhesion greater than 92%.
Guzmán warned in Olivos and said that such a controversial measure could hinder the closing of an agreement in Manhattan and be interpreted as Alberto's turn towards a more statist economy with closed controls.
In other words: a bad sign of a strict exchange control, which may eventually slow down foreign transfers to pay maturities in the future.
Argentina made many concessions to close the external negotiation. Guzmán improved the offer by 16,500 million dollars and matched the legal clauses to those granted by Ecuador. Larry Fink, the tough BlackRock "wolf", celebrated that decision.
Alberto awarded in favor of Guzmán: he postponed the definition. But it was Solomonic: the debate on the saving dollar is pending for September. Among businessmen, the currency issue is red-hot. The UIA and ABA argue that the exchange rate overheating is due to deeper issues. Miguel Acevedo treated him at a top meeting. Also the bankers led by Claudio Cesario. The business movement insists that the rarefied political climate generates uncertainty and leads to exchange rate turbulence.
Also concerned is the total absence of a plan that explains how severe macroeconomic imbalances are to be balanced and the "perfect storm" avoided. Industrialists and bankers insist that judicial reform opens the gap and wears down the President himself. According to the businessmen, the official offensive reflects a disturbing fact: the sustained advance of Cristina on Alberto and the limitations that the vice president imposes on the President. That - in the opinion of businessmen - makes a lot of noise to the exchange issue. In the UIA they say that the issue is first political and then economic.
The issue was discussed unofficially at the cold meeting of Together for Change. There was a clear void from Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and María Eugenia Vidal towards Mauricio Macri. The former president is obsessed with the judicial issue itself. Macri confided to his friends a fear: that Cristina - out of revenge - is promoting actions against her children, shareholders of the Macri Group, in the Mail cause.
Pesce will seek - at this time - money from China. The binational agreement had a peculiarity: in a renewal, Guido Sandleris imposed an absurd self-demand He said that Argentina must have the approval of the IMF, for the Chinese swap to be disbursed. The demanding self-clause was now made more flexible. The request to China does not like Washington.
It occurs when the President got into an unexpected diplomatic conflict with the White House over the leadership of the IDB. Felipe Solá advises against confrontation. The relationship between the foreign minister and Gustavo Béliz - the Argentine candidate - would not be the best. Fernández is betting everything on an electoral defeat for Donald Trump. Now, the polls brought him closer to the Democratic candidate: CNN says the difference is only 4 points.
Trump violates the entire history of the IDB, with the candidacy of Mauricio Claver-Carone.
But the Argentine position is weak. This week some information raised concerns in the Casa Rosada: Mexico would be willing to provide a quorum for Carone's election, even if it votes against it. The issue was discussed in the intimate meeting that brought together the main leaders of the Frente de Todos. They were Axel Kicillof and the main mayors of the Conurbano. Also Wado de Pedro, Sergio Massa and Máximo Kirchner. It happened on Tuesday. There was a stark diagnosis of the economic situation of the Conurbano: there will be a difficult social situation by the end of the year.
But one issue was stinging: the malaise with Sergio Berni. Martín Insaurralde charged hard against the Minister of Security. But Fernando Espinoza was direct: he asked for the resignation of Sergio Berni.