Since the days of the "return marches", Sinwar has adopted an orderly policy in which he achieves relief from Israel through the use of controlled violence.

• Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar // Photo: AP

Between 2009 and the end of 2012, Israel enforced a remarkably limited fishing area. Up to three nautical miles along the entire length of the coast between southern Rafah and northern Lahia, with each border having a prohibited fishing range of about one mile. A long, narrow rectangle whose boundaries are enforced by the 916th Navy Squadron. Since then, three significant extensions have been added: after a pillar of cloud, after a solid cliff and after the "return marches" within the system fence.

The third expansion was the result of the efforts of Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, who was released in the Shalit deal. The military operations that left destruction and ruin in the Gaza Strip are responsible, among others, for the former head of the political bureau, Khaled Mash'al, who always sat safely in his residence in Qatar. In that last beat, the southern fishing area increased to 15 nautical miles, and in the more northern areas it was possible to sail up to six and three miles. 

Photo: IDF Spokesman

Sinwar adopted the "return marches" as part of an orderly policy in which he achieves relief from Israel through the use of controlled violence: explosive and incendiary balloons, demonstrations and riots in the fence, nocturnal displacement units, "recalcitrant activists" of other factions in the Gaza Strip who challenge Hamas. green. Thus, without degenerating into a war that would wreak havoc in the heart of the Strip, Sinwar managed to extort significant achievements from Israel. 

Knowing Israeli society to its core and being a former prisoner, including knowledge of Hebrew, Sinwar knows how to take advantage of the internal crises in Jerusalem in favor of the Gaza Strip. Even today, against the backdrop of election threats in Jerusalem, the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is jumping at the chance to release more restrictions. Senior Hamas figure Mahmoud a-Zahar made it clear this week that the terrorist organization estimates that Israel is not interested in war for fear of loss. In light of this, Sinwar's deputy, Khalil al-Haya, stressed that the current equation is missile versus missile and attack versus attack.  

Sinwar's goal is economic independence. This is how the rejection of Qatar's proposal to extend the transfer of grants should be interpreted. His demand to increase them from $ 30 million to $ 40 million a month, as published this morning in Israel Today, was intended to send a message: for any restriction that is not lifted from the Gaza Strip, Qatar will have to pay more to compensate for it. For him, the priority is for the Gaza Strip to stand on its own two feet, recover from the high unemployment rates and rehabilitate the neglected infrastructure. In the future, economic power will probably become a military power. 

Against him stands the doctrine of Khaled Mashaal. The head of the political bureau has been signaling in recent weeks his intention to return to the position of senior leadership. In a long and extensive document published in the media affiliated with Hamas recently, Mashaal linked the escalation in the south to an attempt to put pressure on Israel in a completely different sector than Qatari money and restrictions. Mashaal claimed a few weeks ago that the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip were working to deter Israel from the annexation initiative - hence they must adhere to it. He estimated that the recent postponement of the annexation was only a temporary thing, and that in the event that Trump continued for another term in the White House, the application of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria would return to the table.

During a discussion in Turkey yesterday, Mashaal referred in general to the "suffering of the Palestinian people from normalization with the Zionist entity." He argued that in light of the agreement with the UAE, the Palestinians should carry out a reassessment, as an implicit critique of the meager influence of Ismail Haniyeh, the current head of the political bureau. As a sting to the United Arab Emirates, which also seems to mean Sinwar, Mash'al added that Israel would not benefit anyone. That is, it must be completely disengaged from it because it wants to establish itself as a major factor in the Middle East.

Compared to Sinwar and Haniyeh, Mashaal presents himself as a regional player, who can influence Arab states and lead the entire Palestinian movement. If he does oust Haniyeh in the internal elections in the terrorist organization in 2021, Israel will face a particularly new and challenging situation. Whoever controls the Gaza Strip will not sit in it or be connected to it. Therefore, he will not be interested at all in the situation of the residents. A threat of assassinations, as the Egyptian delegation warned Hamas members this week, would also be less relevant and difficult to implement. In particular, the deterioration of the war in the Gaza Strip will no longer be a matter of relief or Qatari money, but of the regional and political interests of Khaled Mash'al.