Juan Guaidó has presented a proposal to relaunch the opposition unit and face the legislative electoral appointment organized by Nicolás Maduro, rejected as fraudulent by some sectors inside and outside the country. Guaidó's initiative has been greeted by political actors, but coldly received by Venezuelan society. Time continues to pass and intellectuals and citizens have called on the opposition to present an alternative route in addition to announcing that they will not participate in the convocation organized by Chavismo in December with which it is expected to renew the National Assembly, dominated by opposition forces. The pandemic and the military control of the country that Maduro has evidenced have placed Guaidó at a particularly compromised point and without too many instruments to overcome the circumstance.
The opposition leader, recognized by nearly 60 countries as the interim president of Venezuela, has made an effort to rethink his objectives and retake the initiative by proposing to “denounce electoral fraud, summon the country to express its will through a participation mechanism mass and develop a national and international mobilization plan ”. Many people keep asking questions around these guidelines. The mechanisms of the consultation proposed by Guaidó are unknown. According to opposition sources, they are discussing the formulation of a concrete and definitive question that may have some mobilizing effect, the need to request the suspension of the elections, as well as the complex task of reactivating the Venezuelan streets.
In the statement, broadcast in a video broadcast on social networks, Guaidó makes a call for unity and addresses some of his followers and critics: “I will dedicate the next few days to individually and in groups consult the different leaderships and sectors of democratic society the roadmap that I have developed so that, after listening to each other and debating, we achieve a common and definitive route to present Venezuelans and allies of the world ”.
Luis Vicente León, director of the firm Datanálisis, believes that the initiative "is an attempt with a very low possibility of success if one thinks of reunifying an opposition that has important, natural fractures to the same extent in which the objective is not achieved. of the conquest of democracy. The electoral approach that Chavismo makes is very difficult to face; it's a lose-lose. It is almost impossible for the opposition to participate in these terms in an election. In his opinion, after the opposition has called for abstention, "there does not seem to be a viable alternative." "In any case, I think that Guaidó is doing the right thing: there is a significant problem with the appreciation and symbolism of the opposition unit," he added.
A divided opposition
The political team of the interim Presidency, very hurt by the repression and desertions, has made a special effort to deepen its meetings with unions, unions, students and universities, in addition to an exhausting round of consultations with political parties. For now, some well-known opposition leaders, such as Andrés Velásquez, from Causa R, and Delsa Solórzano, from Encuentro Ciudadano, have praised Guaidó's call. Other leaders with a more radical orientation, such as María Corina Machado and Antonio Ledezma, have expressed their willingness to exchange opinions, while others, such as Henrique Capriles Radonski, have kept silent.
"Guaidó tries to expand the conviction that Maduro's legislatures are a fraud and are not going to solve anything in Venezuela," says political analyst and consultant Oswaldo Ramírez. “The other thing is to promote articulation between citizens that allows political action. It is necessary to move the country internally. There may be a definitive adjustment of perceptions with the international community, an alignment with firmer positions. You have to be prepared, last minute scenarios can come here that move the electoral picture. I do not rule out a suspension of those elections, "he added.
"The unitary pact that Guaidó proposes requires a consultation route," says Elgée González Lobato, professor of Law and Political Science at the Central University of Venezuela. “It is not clear whether this involves a decision by the parties about what will happen to the interim government if those elections are held and a new legislative directive is installed. The announcement of the plan is partial, the sentence is incomplete. We are faced with a fraudulent process. Does the opposition propose a perfectible electoral mechanism to promote an improvement in conditions, or are there no elections here until Maduro falls? That question must be asked ”.
The political spokespersons consulted agree that it is a good first step to get out of the lag that the Guaidó administration is leading to make the political transition possible, but they believe that the objectives set out in the call are very difficult to achieve. For now, the political and social realities of Venezuela are still determined by the pandemic. "What is clear is that we have to activate the street," says Edward Rodríguez, head of Guaidó's press team. "From Maduro we are not going to leave for Zoom."