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To decide what to do in Belarus, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, can choose one of the positions of the various “Kremlin towers”, the expression used to designate the groups of power and opinion that try to influence the chief of the State. You can also listen to the sober recommendations offered by the professional institutions of international politics. The prestigious directors of two Russian research and analysis centers agree that what is desirable is a political evolution that does not alter the foreign relations and the geostrategic position of Belarus.
“An internal mediation is not possible today in Belarus because it is not clear between who and who. Russia is already doing mediation work, but not between Alexandr Lukashenko and an untrained opposition, but with the large European countries such as Germany and France ”, says Alexéi Gromiko, director of the Institute of Europe, dependent on the Academy of Sciences From Russia.
Gromyko is a historian by training and the grandson of Andrei Gromyko, the USSR Foreign Minister (1957-1985). The legendary Mr. Nyet (sir no) as the politician was known, was originally from Belarus and his grandson maintains ties with that country. This week, on Belarusian television, he warned that, under the influence of the "revolutionary scenario" and the "hybrid pressure", Belarus could lose its identity as a country with a wide and varied industrial base and also its status as a negotiating platform on the Eastern Ukraine. If Minsk changed its policy of association with Russia within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) for a turn towards the European Union, the Belarusian industry would remain at most “assembly workshops” and Minsk, as “Poland's younger brother "Could not host the talks on Ukraine.
The Belarusian Opposition Coordinating Council “does not have a single program,” explains Gromyko, and Svetlana Tijanóvskaya (the opposition candidate exiled in Lithuania) supported a program of measures to reactivate the Belarusian economy that, according to the expert, questions the partnership model with Russia. "The opposition council does not consolidate, but disintegrates," says Gromyko, who admits, however, that in the future we could talk to the opposition "if a moderate party appears that aspires to transform the system along an evolutionary path through a political process of constitutional reform ”.
"What we have today," he points out, "is Lithuania and Poland supporting a scenario for the Venezuelan, like Juan Guaidó" (president of the National Assembly of Venezuela and recognized by the EU as president in charge of the country). "But this is not the position of Germany or France," says Gromyko, who has accused Lithuania and Poland of meddling in Belarusian affairs while trying to prevent Russia from even influencing them.
The “ideal variant” is a process that is reminiscent of the succession of Russian President Boris Yeltsin by Putin in 1999-2000, explains Andrei Kortunov, director of Russia's Council on International Affairs, an institution chaired by Igor Ivanov, a former foreign minister. from Russia (1998-2004).
Internal and external
Kortunov distinguishes between internal and external transition. In the first, Lukashenko would name his successor, present him to Putin and the two would give each other mutual guarantees. The successor would roll over in state affairs (as Putin did at the time he was prime minister), while a constitutional process would develop that would culminate in elections. Lukashenko could retain some official position and the successor could be “a young general or a technocrat, who must be proposed by the current president and be loyal to him and to the others, because Lukashenko would see anyone who tries to play today as a traitor. his own game in Moscow, ”says Kortunov. "The political transition in Belarus has already started and it can be stopped, but not stopped," he says.
Regarding the external transition, Kortunov rejects the example of Ukraine and refers to Armenia, where the revolutionary replacement of the leaders (Serzh Sargsián by Nikol Pashinyán in 2018) was carried out without altering the model of geostrategic alliances. “Russia supports them despite the fact that their internal dynamics differs from ours, because Moscow and Yerivan apparently reached an agreement, according to which Armenia could do whatever it wanted in domestic politics, but it did not change the geopolitical picture, it did not get "Armenia was not in a good situation with neighbors such as Azerbaijan and Turkey, and Belarus is not very well either, because the EU cannot cover it with gold or give it a priority route to enter the Union and Russia is its first market", the expert considers , which indicates that Belarus could develop democracy and pluralism without altering its alliance contour.
“Western countries behave rationally and rightly assumed that the Ukrainian scenario should not be repeated, that Moscow should not be given an additional reason to interfere in the situation in Belarus. For the Russian military, a weakened Lukashenko would be ideal because they could retain their bases and expand their presence in Belarus, but they are not the only decision-makers, ”says Kortunov. "I hope there is no direct military interference from Russia, but this does not mean that there is no interference and there are a lot of methods to influence the situation," he adds.
The specialist does not exclude that around Putin there are people who incline him to a more active interference, including the employment of the National Guard. "And from a formal and legal point of view that would be as legitimate as the aid given to President Bashar al-Assad in Syria." However, Kortunov argues that the Kremlin must consider that "such interference", regardless of its formal and legal basis "would cause a new and serious worsening of relations with the West" and that an action by the Russian National Guard or the forces Riot control in Belarusian cities would inevitably generate an anti-Russian mood "that does not exist in that country today." "Officially there are no consultations between Moscow and the opposition, because Belarus has initiated a criminal case against the opposition council, but I am sure that there are unofficial contacts between trusted people in Moscow who discuss different variants of political transition with that council", Kortunov thinks.
"The only way is a transition in stages, if the situation does not get out of control because the military and security and police forces stop submitting to Lukashenko, they will go to the opposition or they will be inhibited," concludes the expert, who believes that if he loses With this support, it will be very difficult for Lukashenko to maintain power, which can pass to the other side, and then a revolution would happen. And to avoid a Russian military intervention in that hypothetical case, it is because it would be desirable to opt for the Armenian variant and not the Ukrainian variant.