• news
• World news
• Europe

All his options are bad, but Putin can not give up on Belarus

The Russian president enjoys seeing dictator Lukashenko, who opposed the union, become dependent on him, and any direct intervention could turn the protest into anti-Russian. But continued demonstrations in a country where Moscow sees a buffer zone with NATO may give ideas to the opposition at home. Navalny has already received the message

• Belarus
• Russia
• Alexander Lukashenko
• Vladimir Putin
• Alexei Navalny

Guy Elster

• Share on Facebook
• Share on WhatsApp
• Share on general
• Share on general
• Share on Twitter
• Share on Email

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union in recent years. It was once said to be the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. Another time, Putin, who was a KGB officer in the late days of the Soviet empire, said he would have prevented its fall if he could.

It is not because he is a great communist - he claims to have supported dissidents who tried to carry out radical elements in the regime against President Boris Yeltsin in 1991 Because he was appalled by Russia's investment in the world arena and felt that its interests were in jeopardy with the spread of the West into territories that were formerly part of the Soviet Union or the Communist bloc.

He saw this happening back in the late Yeltsin era, when Russia lost its grip on the Caucasus in favor of the Chechen separatists and when NATO struck Milosevic's Yugoslavia in the late 1990s. In a wave of popular revolutions, dubbed "color revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine, among others, Putin and other senior Russian officials saw a Western hand stirring upheavals beyond the country's borders and decided to end it even at the cost of a cooling of relations with the West.

Read more on the subject

• The ruler of Belarus ordered to suppress the demonstrations; The EU will impose sanctions
• Un mobilized media: Belarusian television has joined a protest against Lukashenko
• Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in Belarus against the dictator; Russia: Ready to help militarily
• 70,000 people are not mistaken: the effective treatment for knee and back pain

One of the clear red lines is the rule in Belarus. Russia does not hide its desire for unification with Belarus, which is culturally closer to it than any other previous Soviet republic. Not only that, its geographical location, between the Baltic states and Poland that have slipped from Moscow's sphere of influence into the arms of the EU, makes it a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Russia's military.

Therefore, Russia has no choice but to act militarily to safeguard its interests in Belarus. The two neighbors have signed a collective defense alliance, along with several other former Soviet republics, and are part of a loose political union that Putin is trying to tighten. Alexander Lukashenko strengthens his leverage capabilities, after years of reservations on the part of the so-called last dictator of Europe (although in recent years other authoritarian rulers have emerged in the east of the continent).

It is no coincidence that the European Union is wary of the reaction to the election fraud in Belarus and the violence against the protesters. Bloc leaders fear to anger Russia and thus provide it with an excuse for direct intervention, as happened after the Ukraine revolution in 2014 that toppled pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. It cost Ukraine the loss of the Crimean peninsula and parts of the eastern part of the country that are de facto controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Russia has been punished with painful sanctions, but it will be willing to risk a similar price so as not to lose Belarus.

More on Walla! NEWS

What we need to know about the crisis in Belarus

To the full article

Things can change quickly

At this time there is no need for direct military intervention, which could divert Belarusian public opinion against Russia. The demonstrations there are not anti-Russian, as they were in Ukraine and other countries in the region, but only against Lukashenko. There are other ways she helps Lukashenko. Thus, for example, she sent journalists to talk about his regime after those locals withdrew in mass-enhanced power in protest of the election. Moscow believes that the President of Belarus for the past 26 years, whose style of rule, symbols and economy are reminiscent of the Soviet Union, will survive in a weak way. His growing dependence on Moscow is a positive development for her.

And yet, things can change quickly. The protesters are not giving up and the protest will soon enter its third week. The key to Lukashenko's survival depends on the security forces, which remain loyal to him for now, but will not disqualify a wave of defections and perhaps even a coup attempt. The fear barrier that held Lukashenko in power for more than a quarter of a century was broken, and he failed to impose a new one. This would require him to use great force against his citizens or greater external intervention, as happened with Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela.

Although Moscow is less concerned at the moment than the Belarusian opposition, one of whose leaders, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, is promoting protests from her exile in Lithuania to which she fled after an alleged election loss, the Russian opposition may get ideas. Perhaps that was the message of the one who poisoned Alexei Navalny, the most prominent figure in the Russian opposition who went into a coma on Thursday and is only seeking medical treatment in Germany this morning: Do not try at home what you see in Belarus.

Solidarity calls with protesters in Belarus are already being heard in the Far East city of Khabarovsk, where the seven-week protest is refusing to fade. It began due to the arrest of the popular governor, who defeated Putin's candidate, and as is often the case has already developed into a wider protest against the Moscow authorities. It is not yet out of reach in the remote region, but a possible success of the protest in Belarus may give ideas to Putin's opponents at home. Russia's president will not tolerate this, certainly not when regional elections are held next month.

Putin hopes Russia will not have to be dragged into Belarus. He had hoped to make positive headlines around the world with the dubious announcement of Russia's success in developing the world's first vaccine for the corona virus, but he could not direct all events as he wished, although he promised his rule until the end of his life earlier this year. Without a solution in the near future to the crisis in Belarus, he may finally be forced to choose the least bad option for him to keep "Belarus" under his influence.

• Share on Facebook
• Share on WhatsApp
• Share on general
• Share on general
• Share on Twitter
• Share on Email