CDU chairmanship: three-way battle (still) three-way battle

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CDU chairman candidates Laschet, Merz, Röttgen

The chairman candidate Norbert Röttgen has just made it clear again in the SPIEGEL interview: From his point of view, the CDU party conference must take place in December. "Postponing the party congress again would be fatal and send the wrong signal," said the member of the Bundestag. "I expect the current party leadership to use all the creativity that is necessary to allow the party congress to take place."

But Röttgen makes it a bit easy for himself with this announcement. To put it more viciously: His words could remind some of a toddler who stamps his feet and calls out: "I want to!"

Because whether the party congress planned in Stuttgart at the beginning of December can take place in times of Corona will ultimately only be partially in the power of the CDU or its current leadership, however creative it may be. In the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, all possible models are currently being run through in order to be able to hold a face-to-face party congress, which the party law and the CDU statutes have so far stipulated when decisions about content and personnel have to be made. "It could even be that, due to the corona situation, we are restricting the party congress to the mere board election," said Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is still chairman, of "Welt am Sonntag".

But if Corona ultimately makes a maximally shortened and personnel-compressed party congress impossible, at which perhaps only around 1000 delegates plus the board members are in one hall, what then? "In the worst case of a second major pandemic wave, the executive board remains in office until the party conference can be convened," says Kramp-Karrenbauer.

In the worst case, to use Kramp-Karrenbauer's word, that could be the case for a long time - that is how long she would continue to be chairwoman and the clarification of personnel at the party leadership, which in turn had a direct impact on the CDU and CSU candidacy for chancellor, was postponed again.

As a reminder: In addition to Röttgen, the party vice and North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Armin Laschet as well as the former Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz apply for the CDU chairmanship, in terms of candidate for chancellor, the CSU chief and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder speaks in any case and could also have ambitions himself assert.

Another adjournment? Catastrophic for the CDU

It would be a catastrophe for the CDU if the necessary clarification is pushed into the new year. The chairman applicant Röttgen puts it this way: "The Union must have clarified all personnel issues by the end of the year, including the candidate for chancellor." You need "at the beginning of the election year 2021 a newly legitimized leadership at the top of the Union and clarity for the voters," he told SPIEGEL. Tilman Kuban, head of the CDU / CSU youth organization Junge Union, recently told the "Welt": "Another extension of the hanging game would not do us any good as the CDU."

However, if the current development of the corona pandemic makes even a mini CDU party congress in December increasingly unlikely and at the same time a rapid change in the party law that would enable a virtual replacement party congress is not to be expected, then there is actually only one thing left: Röttgen and his fellow candidates will come to an amicable agreement by December. Then one would have clarity, the acting chairman could get started and come to an agreement with the CSU chairman Markus Söder about the candidacy for Union chancellor, before a regular CDU party congress formally confirms him at a later date.

Brinkhaus and others for amicable solution

Some in the CDU are already skeptical about the three-way battle for chairmanship. "An amicable solution before the party conference in December would be the best," said Union parliamentary group leader Ralph Brinkhaus these days in the "Handelsblatt". "Now have three months of primary campaigns and then 270 days of real election campaigns, who wants that given the difficult situation in Germany?" Still boss Kramp-Karrenbauer announced: "There is a deep desire in the party that there is an amicable solution."

The catch: none of the three applicants seem to want to withdraw so far.

This is how the incumbent chairwoman Kramp-Karrenbauer sees it. "At the moment I don't see any of the candidates wanting to withdraw their candidacy," she says. "So I'm still preparing for a fight vote."

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Candidate Norbert Röttgen

Not even the underdog candidate Röttgen has made any move to get out of the three-way battle. The head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag would at least have to lose if he withdraws - also because he has hardly any chance of a majority of the delegates' votes. If Röttgen does it cleverly, he could even negotiate something for the future line-up. That seems to have been Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn's plan when he decided against running his own candidacy in the spring and instead stood behind Laschet.

Candidate Armin Laschet

Federico Gambarini / dpa

Because of the support of the Spahns, which is particularly popular among younger Christian Democrats, the NRW Prime Minister should still have a good chance of taking the chair, although he has not always cut a good figure in Corona management in recent months. If Laschet sees himself as chairman-designate, why should Laschet get out of the race?

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Candidate Friedrich Merz

The same is the case from the candidate Merz's point of view. During his appearances, twice in Saxony last week, the CDU politician assured himself of undiminished enthusiasm, Merz's campaign team recently moved into offices in Berlin opposite the main train station. The man believes in his opportunity - and wants to seize it.

So the three-way battle remains a three-way battle.

And it could last much longer than December.