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Joe Biden gains popularity in post-convention polls

2020-08-24T12:40:10.644Z


The first polls after the Democratic National Convention are out now and, for the most part, it looks like a "mission accomplished" for Democrats.


Joe Biden's full speech on accepting his presidential nomination 25:12

(CNN) - The first polls after the Democratic National Convention are now available and, for the most part, it looks like a "mission accomplished" for Democrats.

While former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump does not appear to have widened, Biden may have made his lead more durable by increasing his own popularity.

A new CBS News / YouGov poll puts Biden ahead by a 52% to 42% margin among likely voters. That's identical to the lead Biden had from the pollster before the conventions began. An average of the limited data outside of conventions suggests that there has been less than a point change in both directions in the race.

Obviously, we'll need to see if the lack of career change changes as more data is entered, but it's not surprising that this is where the data ultimately ends.

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As I wrote before the conventions, all signs pointed to small convention rebounds in the Biden-Trump showdown. Rebounds have gotten smaller in recent years, and the unusual stability of this race, the well-known candidates, and the undecided few made the reduced conventions unlikely to produce a large rebound.

The good news for Biden comes in the form of ratings in favor. A new ABC News / Ipsos poll shows that Biden's net approval rating (favorable - unfavorable) has increased compared to before the conventions.

Biden's net approval rating rose 8 points from -3 points to +5 points among all adults. It has gone from -2 points to +3 points among registered voters. That's in line with the average post-convention poll that Biden's net approval has risen by 5-10 points.

Biden's jump to positive net approval ratings is a breakthrough, if it holds up.

His net approval rating (favorable - unfavorable) averaged -1 point before the conventions began. That's below the +6 point net approval rating that winning candidates have averaged since 1980.

Biden is now right where he needs to be to match the average number of winning candidates in terms of popularity.

In fact, Biden's problem hasn't been his numbers against Trump. He has more than 50% support and his lead has been considerable and sustained.

Biden's biggest problem has been a lack of enthusiasm for his own candidacy. When voters cast a vote between two candidates they don't like, they are likely to be less likely to participate and likely more susceptible to last minute changes of opinion (for example, 2016). Remember, Trump only won in 2016 because he won most of the voters who didn't like either candidate.

If the new vote is any indication, Biden may be holding back voters who were in his favor. In that case, it will be much more difficult for Trump to overcome his deficit given that Biden is already over 50%.

This looks good in the CBS News / YouGov poll when comparing last week's data with this week's.

Biden voters are now 9 points more likely (29% to 38%) to say that they are voting for Biden primarily because they like Biden, not because he is the Democratic nominee or because they don't like Trump. Furthermore, his voters are now 5 points more likely (82% to 87%) to say that their support for him is "very strong… determined."

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Whether any of this stays beyond convention is anyone's guess. It could decline like a normal rebound from convention races. Although unlike those rebounds, Biden simply has to hold on to those who were already on his side before the conventions.

We'll see if Trump can steal some of those Biden voters this week at the Republican National Convention.

Joe biden

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-08-24

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