Politicians in Germany are warning of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. But what does this second corona wave stand for? And how do virologists think it will go? An overview.
- Coronavirus : Experts are urgently warning of a second wave in Germany .
- Corona pandemic : If the reproduction number R goes up and the number of new Covid-19 infections increases significantly, the second wave is (usually) spoken of.
- Experts and virologists debate: theory of the permanent wave of infections versus the assessment that the second wave has long since arrived.
Munich - Contagion, symptoms, previous illnesses, mortality rate - our knowledge about corona fits together like a puzzle in the coronavirus pandemic . With Corona, for example, this applies to immunity or the unreported numberof Covid-19 infections in Germany. And so it is now with the so-called second wave .
Second wave of the coronavirus pandemic: stormy or like a flood?
The questions behind it: Is it storming and unstoppable in Germany, or is it more controlled and over a longer period of time as a permanent state?
According to the knowledge gathered in midsummer, as of the end of August, the second variant for the second corona wave is probably the more likely. Adjustments not excluded. As with so much in the coronavirus pandemic , which often does not allow for clearly binding answers.
Coronavirus pandemic: "Second wave" in Germany "emerging"
"The second wave is clearly evident, as we are now seeing an increase in the number of active infections over several weeks," said Leipzig epidemiologist Markus Scholz of the German Press Agency (published on August 21): "I therefore currently see no scope for further relaxation - also and especially not for large events. People go around, get drinks, go to the toilet - then there are a lot of contacts that are difficult to understand given a large number of people. "
The medical association Marburger Bund , however, was already certain in an assessment from the beginning of August: The second wave had already reached Germany at this point in time.
Specifically: The chairwoman of the medical association, Susanne Johna, spoke of a “second, flat surge” in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine. An important additional information: The second wave in the coronavirus pandemic is not comparable with the numbers from March and April when the values of new infections with the pathogen SARS-CoV-2 shot up.
Medical Association: Second wave of the coronavirus pandemic as long as there are no corona drugs
At the time, Johna also provided an indication of how long the second wave in the corona crisis would last in her opinion. As long as there are no drugs to treat Covid-19 .
Until then, the second phase of the coronavirus pandemic will be : containment. "This is only possible with the AHA formula - distance, hygiene, everyday mask - and local quarantine," she continued. In her opinion, the face mask "saves lives."
How a permanent second corona wave is medically dealt with is regulated in detail. According to the Marburger Bund , a smaller number of intensive care beds will be kept free for potential Covid 19 patients in stage one . If these are occupied, step two comes into effect 24 hours later and the capacities in the intensive care units are expanded.
In the corona crisis, Germany is prepared for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic
“It goes on like this, step by step, until all the intensive care capacities available for Covid 19 patients are exhausted in the highest alarm and expansion stage, ” said Johna. But how can the very cryptic second wave be defined, grasped and named?
To put it simply: If the corona infection numbers go up again, like in a curve, it becomes problematic. Means: If the reproduction number R increases, this is an indication of a second wave of infection. For classification: The reproduction number R indicates how many people are infected on average by a person infected with a virus. This makes it easier to predict the likelihood of new infections. If the value R is around 1, the infection rate remains the same.
Virologist Hendrik Streeck: "We must not panic every time the number of infections increases". In the #FAZ interview, he expresses himself calmly. Corona could become a "permanent wave", but other diseases should not be neglected https://t.co/wIkyQtnuDD #fplus via @faznet
- Christian Schubert (@Ch_Schubert) August 7, 2020However, there is no clearly defined limit, understandable for everyone, from when a second wave is generally spoken of.
Virologists about coronavirus: second wave or permanent wave in Germany?
Germany's virologists, who have been in the public eye for months, are meanwhile busily debating the terminology. The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck , author of the Heinsberg study, for example, avoids the term " second wave ".
In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung he spoke of a "permanent wave that keeps going up and down". The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the World Medical Association, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, shares this assessment. The 68-year-old also spoke of a permanent wave of infections with a view to the insidious corona virus.
Ultimately, all experts agree that the second phase of the pandemic will last a very long time. (pm)