Since the proclamation of its so-called caliphate in 2014, the terrorist militia IS has been spreading horror. It has expanded from the Arab region to Africa and Asia. However, experts warn against ascribing too much influence to the jihadists.
Bamako / Damascus / Kabul (dpa) - When US special forces tracked down Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's hiding place in Syria last autumn, it didn't take long for a new leader to succeed the Islamic State (IS). After the death of the world's most wanted and feared terrorist, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Kuraishi became head of the terrorist militia. Awarded US bounty: $ 10 million.
ISIS is weakened in its former rule in Syria and Iraq. To this end, he has opened new fronts in West, North and East Africa as well as in parts of Asia. The influence extends to Sri Lanka and the Philippines.
There offshoots swore allegiance. More than 250 people were killed in the Easter attacks on Sri Lanka in April 2019 on several churches and luxury hotels. The IS also claimed this attack for itself.
In Africa, IS is trying to strengthen its presence, especially south of the Sahara. In West Africa in the Sahel zone, extremists find fertile soil: the region is characterized by an explosive mixture of poverty, weak governance, population growth and the consequences of climate change. The threat from militant Islamist groups is growing, warns Daniel Eizenga from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. "There has been a dramatic escalation in violence."
There are two main groups in favor of IS: the West African offshoot ISWAP, which has split off from Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria, and the Islamic State in the Sahel (ISGS) on the border between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Associating with IS - a name known around the world - has brought about good propaganda above all, says Eizenga. With around 3,500 fighters, ISWAP has more members than any other IS branch in Africa, as the anti-terror center of the US military academy West Point estimated in 2018.
On the northern edge of the Sahara, IS fighters are trying to exploit the civil war chaos in Libya, or they are carrying out attacks in the barren desert of Egypt. For years, Egyptian security forces in northern Sinai have been fighting with the IS offshoot Wilajat Sinai. Extremists often carry out suicide bombings there or attack with weapons. In one of the worst attacks by IS in recent years, more than 300 people were killed in a mosque there.
Further east, in Afghanistan, the terrorist militia appeared in 2015. There and on Pakistani territory she wants to found the "province" IS-Khorasan. The USA and the government in Kabul fought ISIS intensively from the start. In autumn 2019, President Ashraf Ghani then announced the military victory. Nevertheless, the terrorist militia repeatedly claimed devastating attacks for themselves.
A terror attack on a hospital in the capital, Kabul, in which mothers were murdered with their newborns, caused horror in May. The US later blamed ISIS. There was also a major attack on a prison in Nangarhar Province, the former IS stronghold. According to a UN report, ISIS still has around 2,200 fighters in Afghanistan today. Experts fear that after a possible peace agreement between the government in Kabul and the militant Islamist Taliban, fanatical Taliban fighters could also join him.
Nevertheless, the so-called caliphate that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed in Syria and Iraq in 2014 no longer exists. ISIS has been significantly weakened in both countries and its influence has waned despite the new arenas of battle. "Your ability to move money, recruiting - everything we've seen since 2014 - has decreased very, very, very much," said US special envoy to fight the jihadists, James Jeffrey, in June.
Terrorism expert Eizenga also warns against ascribing too much influence to IS today: "The organization is in decline. It is in their interests to pretend they have connections to all these satellite groups around the world." The IS can only work with them to a limited extent. According to Eizenga, there is little evidence that there is a direct link in the form of money or coordination between headquarters and branches.
This also applies to the supposedly newest front: Mozambique. Southern Africa was spared Islamist terror for a long time. Since 2017, however, extremists have been attacking people in Mozambique's poor but gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado. Of more than 400 attacks, IS claimed at least 35 in its propaganda channels, says Jasmine Opperman. Beyond this "media jihad", however, she saw no instructions or support from IS, says the analyst at the conflict institute ACLED. According to experts, the role of IS in Mozambique is overestimated.
Terrorism experts nevertheless remain vigilant - also because IS could gain a stronger foothold in Iraq and Syria. According to US analysts at West Point, IS carried out around 560 attacks in Iraq alone in the first three months of the current year - compared to 290 in the same period last year. The "recent pace of violence" is comparable to the situation in 2012, when the group was facing its "military breakthrough" in Iraq and Syria.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 200825-99-297244 / 3
