Editor's Note: David Axelrod, a CNN political commentator and host of "The Ax Files," was a senior adviser to President Barack Obama and chief strategist for Obama's 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. The opinions expressed in this comment are yours. See more opinion at cnne.com/opinion.
(CNN) - The Democrats have spoken. Now it's President Donald Trump's turn at bat. You can expect him and the Republicans to handle it, well, liberally. They have to.
Trump enters the Republican National Convention in the worst shape of any incumbent since George HW Bush in 1992, a race Bush lost to Bill Clinton. In polls, Trump averages nine points behind former Vice President Joe Biden nationally, and the country remains in the grip of the deadly coronavirus pandemic, which most voters believe Trump has mishandled.
The economy that he hoped would work is consequently in a deep hole, with 77% of Americans rating it fair or poor. His overall approval rating hovers around 40%.
Furthermore, Democrats have just made Trump's job difficult with a virtual convention, cleverly executed and strategically intelligent.
The four-day television production painted a vivid portrait of the American community, drawing on the compelling testimonies of ordinary Americans, their struggles and hopes for the future. That sense of connection was an inspiring tonic for a wounded and weary nation.
Sen. Kamala Harris, a symbol of the nation's growing diversity, was seamlessly inducted as Biden's running mate just one day after the centennial of women's gaining the right to vote.
The case against Trump was devastatingly crafted by both Barack and Michelle Obama and a series of speakers who connected the president's divisive nature, blatant disregard for democratic norms, and chaotic approach to governance with the overlapping crises we face.
Yet to a large extent, the case against Trump was well known and was already reflected in the president's relatively poor position in the polls. Despite nearly half a century on the scene, Biden was less well known, and the convention did an important job of filling out his profile and supporting him for the attack that was coming.
It was a portrait of a palpably decent and deeply empathetic man, firmly rooted in the values of family and faith; a military father and son of the working class from the industrial heartland, who understands struggle and loss because he himself has endured many of them.
The explicit message is that a man who persevered through quasi-biblical trials can lead us through this moment to a better day.
The convention also honed Biden's history as a seasoned civil servant with a track record of bridging partisan divisions to get things done. The inclusion of prominent Republicans, while upsetting some on the left, illustrates the point and marks a stark contrast to Trump's torch policy.
This is exactly why Trump tried so desperately to prevent Biden from becoming the Democratic nominee, even asking the president of Ukraine for help in smearing the former vice president. Trump knew what the Democratic National Committee made clear: that Biden challenges the caricature of the terrifying, "radical left" and culturally decayed candidate that the president hoped to portray of any Democratic candidate.
By delivering an energetic and passionate acceptance speech, more a presidential address to the nation than a partisan jeremiad, Biden also complicated Trump's alternate history - that, at 77, the former vice president is an aging, confused and incapable figure. On Thursday Biden could look like anything short of spent, passing the first major test, with three televised debates in the offing.
As my CNN colleague Ron Brownstein pointed out in his post-convention review, the Democrats' only flaw was the absence of a more sustained populist critique of Trump's economic policies, the benefits of which have drastically favored the rich over the wealthy. working class.
The economy, which is paramount for most Americans, generally squeezed into limited space Wednesday night as Democrats focused on the virus, health care, social justice, guns and climate change. . Biden covered it with a contrasting vision in his speech, but it wasn't the main thrust.
That economic message goes hand in hand with the cultural one and would further frustrate Trump's effort to completely rebuild his white working-class base and score a second Electoral College victory.
But overall, Biden and the Democrats had a very strong week, energizing their broad base, appealing further and lifting the figure of the former vice president as the vote approaches.
So what can we expect this week when the Republicans mostly meet virtually?
Trump promises an "upbeat" message, and you can expect the hyperbolic marketability and self-promotion the former reality star is famous for. It will promote lower taxes and less regulation; the wall (although little has been built); conservative judges and a better funded Army. It will affirm that the world fears and respects us more than when it arrived.
But at this point, Trump will not win a referendum on his leadership. Not with more than 175,000 Americans killed due to the coronavirus, many millions unemployed and deep racial divisions that it has cowardly exploited. So the week will be less of a celebration of achievement, though it will claim many, than a recasting of Biden as the instrument, if not the example, of radical and threatening change.
For Trump, it is the foundation first, last and always. So he will flip the message of the Democratic convention.
Appeals to gun safety laws will be filed as a Second Amendment assault. Climate action will be condemned as an invitation to regulation that ends employment. Immigration reform will become "open borders" and progressive plans to strengthen the social pact will be presented as a code to increase taxes on the middle class.
A major issue that Trump has been heralding will be crime and security, as the self-described "law and order" president will proclaim Democrats "anti-police" and raise the specter of a growing urban dystopia in which only he it will stop at the suburban borders. It is pure racial politics, an effort to scare suburban white women back into their fold. He was very explicit about this in a tweet over the weekend.
The names of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and The Squad will be heard more at the Republican convention than the one we just witnessed. Harris's history as a tough prosecutor will be dropped. Republicans will use her brief Senate record to paint her left. The message will be that Harris and the left-wing Democrats, not Biden, are the face of the new Democratic Party. And Biden himself will be vilified as a lifelong insider of Washington, an accessory to its failures.
It will be interesting to see how well Republicans adapt to the fusion of virtual and live formats that has been imposed on them after wasted months, at Trump's insistence, searching in vain for a location that would allow them to host a traditional convention.
Remote or not, Trump will be center stage, and not just on the last night, as tradition holds. Convinced that he will outshine any potential substitutes at the all-important 10 o'clock hour when the broadcast networks come together, the longtime reality star has signed up for the lineup for all four nights.
He may once again assert that he exercised stellar leadership during the pandemic that has rocked the nation, and describe the calamity as a brief Chinese-inspired detour in a glorious American renewal set to resume shortly. In contrast to the relatively sober Democratic convention, Trump will no doubt demand as much pomp as the reduced format will allow.
But with most Americans convinced the country is on the wrong track, with the president lagging behind and only three weeks until the first ballots are cast, I bet this "optimistic" Republican convention and its star will take a turn. decidedly wild twist.