Eduardo Paladini
08/25/2020 - 11:27
- Clarín.com
- Politics
When his name transcended the borders of his province and reached the national media, some used to mistake him for a radical former minister. But times change and today Oscar Ahuad, a missionary and not from Cordoba, with "h" and not with "g", became the governor with the best image in the country. This is at least shown by a survey that has been published since May and that is now in its fourth edition.
This month's survey brings more surprises: Gildo Insfrán from Formosa, perhaps the most questioned Kirchner president from Buenos Aires, beats his Buenos Aires partner Axel Kicillof (by a lot). And Gerardo Morales, the radical who hit the ground running in 2015 by displacing Peronism from Jujuy, fell to last place .
CB Consultora Opinion Pública is the firm that carried out the study. Originally from Córdoba, it has been publishing national and other local surveys. In this case, it surveyed between 500 and 1,350 respondents in each province , from August 16 to 21, and presented the results with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
Alberto Fernández and Gildo Insfrán, when the president visited Formosa in May and was highly praising the governor, who has been in office for 25 consecutive years.
The ordering of the leaders is made according to the positive image they obtain in their district. That explains results that seen from the outside can be strange. The best example is Insfrán , criticized by opponents and even analysts for how he perpetuated himself in power. Formosa is, along with Catamarca and Santa Cruz (where it was imposed by Néstor Kirchner), one of the three provinces that still allow indefinite reelection.
On June 16, 2019, Insfrán achieved his seventh consecutive triumph for governor with more than 70% of the votes, which does not clash with the 66.1% valuation in favor that CB gives him and that allows him to occupy the fourth place in the ranking of leaders, beyond continuing to be one of the provinces with the highest poverty rates in the country: 41.6% at the end of last year, according to Indec data.
Kicillof , meanwhile, main governor of the Frente de Todos, is 14th , with 51.7% positive, almost four points more than in the July measurement but still far from Insfrán.
The podium, with Ahuad (Frente Renovador de la Concordia) as the top one with 67.8 weighting points in favor, is completed by two opponents: Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (City, from PRO, 66.8 ) and Gustavo Valdés (Corrientes, from the UCR, 66.2 ). The Buenos Aires head of government, who was ninth in May, thus confirms his good performance in almost all public opinion studies, even those that measure outside the Capital.
Methodological clarification: CB uses for its ranking what is known as the "net image", where the variable "ns / nc" is cleared and between the positive and the negative they add up to 100. In this type of measurements, as there are only two variables ( nor is an intermediate "regular" computed, for example) the percentages tend to rise . Therefore, even those who do relatively poorly have favorable percentages that at first glance may seem good.
Governor Axel Kicillof and Head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, at a press conference in La Plata in mid-June. Photo Mauricio Nievas.
Regarding the bottom of the table, as explained at the beginning of the note, Morales stands out. Would the complicated situation due to the coronavirus have influenced the province, after having been one of the least affected districts for months? The radical, who reported days ago that he himself was infected with Covid 19, obtained 33.1% positive in August. In May, when the publication of the ranking started, it was 17th with 43.8%.
This fall of Morales allowed two regulars to leave that uncomfortable place: Alicia Kirchner from Santa Cruz and Mariano Arcioni from Chubut, K and Massista variants within the Frente de Todos. Nor is it to uncork: Arcioni is 23 out of 24, with 40.6%; and Alicia K, just one step higher ,with 41.9%. The bottom part of the table is completed by Arabela Carreras from Rio Negro, another "independent" of a provincial force, with 42.7%.
The middle 16
Between the two poles of the table, there are 16 governors, arranged as follows:
5th Sergio Ziliotto (PJ, La Pampa, 64.7%).
6th Sergio Uñac (PJ, San Juan, 63.9%).
7th Rodolfo Suarez (UCR, Mendoza, 61.5%).
8 ° Gerardo Zamora (radical K, Santiago del Estero, 61.3%).
9th Omar Gutiérrez (MPN, Neuquén, 60.8%).
10th Raúl Jalil (PJ, Catamarca, 56.2%).
11th Gustavo Sáenz (PJ, Salta, 54.9%).
12 ° Juan Schiaretti (PJ, Córdoba, 54.4%).
13th Gustavo Bordet (PJ, Entre Ríos, 52.5%).
14th Axel Kicillof (PJ, Buenos Aires, 51.7%).
15 ° Juan Manzur (PJ, Tucumán, 50.7%).
16th Omar Perotti (PJ, Santa Fe, 48.6%).
17th Jorge Capitanich (PJ, Chaco, 48.3%).
18th Ricardo Quintela (PJ, La Rioja, 47.2%).
19th Alberto Rodríguez Saá (PJ, San Luis, 46%).
20th Gustavo Melella (radical K, Tierra del Fuego, 45.8%).
