Eduardo Paladini
08/26/2020 - 11:01
- Clarín.com
- Politics
The "kirchnerization" of Alberto Fernández, a simplification that is often used to describe the President's actions and words that are presumed aligned with Cristina Kirchner's objectives, caused the first undoubted damage to the President in the face of public opinion: basically, he lost unprecedented support and circumstantial information that he had obtained from opposition voters at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. However, that alignment did not break a gap that his figure and that of his vice maintain maintain: according to a new poll, 30% of voters want him but not her .
The study is from MOVE , a consulting firm founded 15 years ago and specialized in the analysis of public opinion for the development of electoral strategies and communication for governments. She participated in campaigns in Argentina -for clients of Macrismo and Kirchnerism- and other countries such as Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, Chile and El Salvador.
The survey exclusively accessed by Clarín included a national survey of 1,200 cases in the first half of August, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. The synthesis of results is divided into three themes: general situation, pandemic, and security and politics . The Alberto-Cristina gap appears in the first, where the fall in the image of the President is confirmed. But they also reveal striking data in the last item: many respondents who have a positive image of Sergio Berni, see Mauricio Macri well and the vice president bad. Has the crack gone crazy?
The Alberto - Cristina crossing
Based on a national survey of 1,200 cases. August 2020. In%
Tap to explore the data
Source: Move Infographic: Clarín
Here's how MOVE sums it up:
- "Throughout the quarantine we noticed a gradual but sustained deterioration in social humor : in the last three months, the evaluation that the electorate makes of the national situation and their personal economic situation, as well as the expectation of improvement, fell close to of 20 points ".
- "This movement of social humor had an impact on the President's metrics . AF's image, its management evaluation and its credibility were eroded: today it surrounds 58 positive image points and 40 negative image points ; 18 points below the peak of 76 reached in April ".
- "The image of Axel Kicillof deteriorated along with that of AF. While the image of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta maintained a stable trend and today he is the highest valued political actor in the country : 63% positive image and 27% negative. This would indicate that the head of government is navigating the coronavirus crisis in a better way. "
The Buenos Aires security minister Sergio Berni, at the traffic permit controls at La Noria Bridge, at the beginning of July. Photo Rafael Mario Quinteros.
- "On the other hand, Cristina's image maintains the stability that has characterized her for years. Despite its deterioration, the AF image is still 18 points away from CFK . Seen from another perspective, almost a third of those They have a good opinion of the President, they have a bad opinion of the Vice President. "
- "The problem of insecurity is becoming increasingly important in the perception of the electorate. In the City, for example, 57% feel less safe traveling on public roads on foot now than before the isolation sanction, while only 8% believe that preventive confinement translates into more security. "
- "Politically, the concern about insecurity is accompanied by the growth in the image of the Buenos Aires Minister of Security , Sergio Berni. At the country level, he has a 50% positive image and 27% negative image, with 23% ignorance."
The Berni - Macri crossing
Based on a national survey of 1,200 cases. August 2020. In%
Tap to explore the data
Source: Move Infographic: Clarín
- "The interesting thing about his figure is that he jumps over the crack . Among those who have a positive image of Berni, 55% value CFK and 45% have a negative image of her. With Macri something also striking happens: a 28 % of those who have a positive image of Berni also have a positive image of the former president. "
Clarín had anticipated this particularity that occurred with the figure of Berni, who "fishes" on the sidewalk in front of the crack. A quality that he shares with Rodríguez Larreta and that explains why Kirchnerism put the head of government in its sights.
Regarding the gap between Cristina and Alberto Fernández , it could be said that it comes from origin . The former president's decision to get out of the 2019 fight and put her former chief of staff in is explained by that extra she gets from a more moderate electorate. And that is maintained, despite a certain radicalization of the president.
