It can be said that the drama had four acts: error, justification, forgiveness, and resignation. Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan dined with 80 people at a hotel in his country, Ireland, breaking the rules against the pandemic. He blamed the organization. He apologized. And cornered by new revelations about his alleged quarantine violations, he resigned. The fifth act, the substitution, begins now. The European Commission has found, almost overnight, a void in one of the key portfolios of the Community Executive and Ireland is already looking for a successor.
“Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will assume, on an interim basis, responsibilities in commercial matters. At a later stage, I will decide the final allocation of portfolios, ”said the president of the European Commission, Ursula on der Leyen on Thursday.
Most, rivals included, recognize Hogan as an experienced negotiator. And in Ireland, while the pools begin on their next replacement, there are those who wonder if the country has not fired a shot in the foot pressuring Brussels to resign. In the air is that Ireland can maintain the portfolio of Commerce. Von der Leyen must decide if he prefers to change an Irishman for another and avoid complications, or on the contrary take advantage of the moment to remodel his Cabinet and give a new impetus to the Executive only nine months after it started, a movement that could bother in Dublin at a crucial time for the post-Brexit relationship negotiation. For now, Von der Leyen has asked the Irish Government to present him with two names, a man and a woman, to choose from.
Dublin's dilemma is whether to send a high-profile politician to Brussels or go for a more technical name to which the intricate language of Brussels is no stranger. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, European Parliament First Vice-President Mairéad McGuinness, Director of the European Investment Bank Andrew McDowell, former EU Ambassador to the United States and former Commission Secretary General David O'Sullivan, or Catherine Day, his successor in that last position, sound like candidates.
Any of them will have to learn fast. The transitional period after the divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union expires on January 1, and the risk of no agreement remains on the table. With the US elections just around the corner, Brussels is also eagerly waiting for the transatlantic relationship to return to its lost normality should Democrat Joe Biden disembark in the White House, or deepen the trade thaw initiated by Hogan in case Donald Trump repeats.
Just look at last Friday to get an idea of the complex task that lies ahead of the heir to the position. That day, as the buzz surrounding the commissioner's inappropriate golf event was gaining decibels, Hogan announced an EU-US agreement in which the two parties agreed to a mutual lowering of tariffs on a basket of products, a gesture that relaxes the tensions after years of disagreements with the Trump Administration. Hours earlier, the European Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that there are no signs of improvement in the negotiations on the future commercial relationship with the United Kingdom.
Both agendas have been at the center of Hogan's work. The appointment of an Irishman as Trade Commissioner was interpreted as a guarantee for Dublin that the country's interests would be well covered in the future London deal, but with Barnier at the forefront of the discussions, it has been kept quietly in the background.
Its brilliance has been less debatable in other deals. With the United States retreating commercially following Trump's landing in the White House, Brussels sought to exploit the vacuum to promote a multilateral agenda. Hogan, Commissioner for Agriculture between 2014 and 2019, played an important role in overcoming resistance to the Mercosur agreement, and Martin Selmayr, former right-hand man of then-President Jean-Claude Juncker, awarded him farewell to having achieved the trade agreement with Japan and the momentous pact with Trump to buy American soybeans in exchange for Washington not raising tariffs on the European auto industry. "You leave a big hole to fill," Selmayr said.
While members of his team made public their sadness for the goodbye, in Ireland the opposition reproached him for a certain arrogance. The television intervention in which he said he was free to quarantine after having traveled from Brussels for having taken a test and giving negative, disregarding the comments to the contrary from the Irish health authorities, have led to accusations that Hogan believes he is above the good and evil.
At 60, the incident in the final stretch of his long political career threatens to blur past merits. “Phil Hogan served Kilkenny, Ireland and Europe with distinction. His decision [to resign] must have been very difficult for him personally. It is sad that a great career ends in this way ”, lamented Leo Varadkar, current number two of the Government.