Will Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder become the Union’s candidate for chancellor and thus a possible successor to Angela Merkel (CDU)? Two political scientists provide an assessment.
- Coronavirus pandemic : Markus Söder (CSU) is largely convincing as a corona crisis manager.
- Many observers are already talking about the Bavarian Prime Minister as the Union's candidate for chancellor for the 2021 federal election .
- But: Two political scientists see huge hurdles on the way from the State Chancellery to the Chancellery - also because of Markus Söder himself.
Munich - Franz-Josef Strauss once crashed. Edmund Stoiber too. Whenever the Union of CDU and CSU has bet on a candidate for Chancellor from Bavaria , it has clearly missed its goal: the Chancellery in Berlin or Bonn (under Strauss).
Said Strauss, Bavarian Prime Minister from 1978 to '88, is considered a great role model for Markus Söder , head of government in the Munich State Chancellery since 2018 - and for many political observers the potential candidate for chancellor of the Union for the federal election in 2021. There is no way at the 53-year-old franc past? As the successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel ? Has the K-question between the CSU and CDU, between Munich and Berlin already been decided?
Markus Söder as candidate for chancellor of the CSU and CDU? Giant hurdles for Bavaria's Prime Minister
No, say two well-known German political scientists in an interview with Merkur.de - and see huge hurdles. Because of Söder himself. And above all because of the sister party.
Video message: Corona is fully back. We have to tighten the reins now so that we don't end up in the same situation as in March and April. pic.twitter.com/6KoHj0oWgt
- Markus Söder (@Markus_Soeder) August 25, 2020“He dares to do it, of course. But he knows that people in Germany outside of Bavaria are strangling with a Bavarian candidate for chancellor. Part of the CDU is also foreign to it. Armin Laschet ( Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, d. Red. ) Is also the chairman of the strongest regional association when it comes to the election of the party chairman and thus the preselection of the candidate for chancellor, ”explains Prof. Dr. Oskar Niedermayer, retired politics professor who researched and taught at the Free University of Berlin for years .
Chancellor candidate from the CDU and CSU: Markus Söder, Armin Laschet and Friedrich are considered candidates
In addition to Söder and Laschet, Friedrich Merz is generally regarded as a promising candidate. Niedermayer, however, believes that many Bavarians do not want their head of government to move to Berlin at all.
"If you look at the surveys, it is clear that Bayern themselves say that Markus Söder would be ideally suited to be Chancellor , but they want to keep him," says the 68-year-old and says: " So Söder knows the problems facing the CSU in the next Bavarian state election without him as the top candidate. After a possible defeat by Green-Red-Red in the federal election, he would also return to Bavaria as a loser . That would be a setback for the CSU . "
Prof. Dr. Gabriele Abels from the Eberhard Karls University in Tübingen sees it similarly. “ In the past, the Union has not had good experiences with Bavarian candidates for chancellor . There are reservations in the CDU about pushing someone from the CSU forward, ”said the political scientist in an interview with Merkur.de .
Markus Söder from Bavaria: Could he also represent Germany as Federal Chancellor?
In her opinion, the mentality also plays a role “that Bayern are assessed as more conservative. In addition, the CSU repeatedly insists on Bavarian special interests. Söder would first have to prove that he can not only act for Bavaria, but can also stand up for German interests, ”explains Abels.
She draws a comparison: “In the politics of Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer ( predecessor of Söder in Bavaria, d. Red .) One has repeatedly missed this foresight in the past few years. That's why there are reservations about someone from Bavaria . "
Abels goes one step further, says: "If Corona crisis management didn't exist at the moment , they would n't even talk about a possible candidate for chancellor from the ranks of the CSU within the Union ."
If Niedermayer has his way, Söder does not even run the risk of a defeat within the party or a narrow victory in the federal election in 2021 or even an unexpected bankruptcy across Germany.
CSU Prime Minister from Bavaria: Does Markus Söder want to become Federal Chancellor at all?
Niedermayer: "I cannot imagine why Markus Söder should give up his extremely secure position in Bavaria for an insecure candidate for chancellor in the federal government." (Pm) * Merkur.de is part of the Germany-wide Ippen-Digital editorial network
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