" If we let go of Lebanon, (...) it will be a civil war ," French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Friday August 28, who is due to return to Beirut next week. " If we let Lebanon go in the region, if in a way we leave it in the hands of the turpitudes of the regional powers, it will be civil war " and " the defeat of what is the very identity of Lebanon ", in crisis and victim of a devastating explosion in early August at the port of Beirut, declared the Head of State to the Presidential Press Association in Paris.
Read also: Macron in Beirut: "The future of Lebanon depends first of all on the Lebanese themselves"
As he had promised, Emmanuel Macron therefore returns next week to Lebanon to try to unblock the political impasse which is preventing the formation of a " mission government " capable of recovering the country after the devastating explosion in early August. The French president is expected Monday evening in Beirut for a visit that promises to be extremely dense and potentially tense.
" He will not let go ," said the Elysee on Friday, recalling the commitment to support Lebanon that Emmanuel Macron made on August 6 during his lightning visit to Beirut, two days after the explosion at the port of a huge amount of ammonium nitrate, which killed about 180 people. The head of state will return Tuesday morning to the devastated neighborhoods, where he will take stock of the clearing operations and the distribution of aid. He will meet with NGOs and UN agencies but also some of the 400 French soldiers deployed in recent weeks to help disembark the approximately 1,000 tons of medical, food or reconstruction aid sent from France.
The visit will also have a symbolic dimension of historical Franco-Lebanese relations: Emmanuel Macron will plant a cedar with Lebanese children in the Jaj forest, north-east of Beirut, where the country's emblematic tree thrives. This " simple ceremony " will celebrate the centenary of the creation of the State of Greater Lebanon on September 1, 1920 by the French General Henri Gouraud. For the occasion, the Patrouille de France, the acrobatic patrol of the French Air Force, will color the sky with the colors of the Lebanese flag.
The president will also meet a Lebanese icon on Monday evening: the diva Fairouz who, at 85, is considered the greatest living Arab singer since the disappearance of Oum Kalsoum.
"Pressure"
But Emmanuel Macron is especially expected on his ability to unblock the inextricable political crisis, nearly three weeks after the resignation of the government of Hassan Diab. " The purpose of his visit is clear: to exert pressure so that the conditions are met for the formation of a mission government capable of carrying out reconstruction and reforms ", one explains in Paris. With, in return, the assurance that the international community will support the financially drained Lebanon.
For this, Emmanuel Macron will have three discussion sequences with political leaders: Monday evening at the residence of Pins, that of the French ambassador in Beirut, Tuesday during a lunch at the presidential palace and then in the evening during a tour de table with the representatives of the nine political forces.
While remaining very cautious, the Elysee " has good hope " to advance the discussions after the announcement Friday of the holding of parliamentary consultations on Monday which must decide the name of the future head of government. So far, no consensus has emerged due to the deep differences between traditional political forces.
"No more possible"
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, head of the largest Sunni bloc in parliament, on August 25 gave up forming a government, having been unable to impose that it be neutral and that it enjoy full powers. Such a scenario has been rejected by the leader of the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, who for his part demands " a government of national unity or bringing together a wide range of political forces ".
Faced with this impasse, Paris has toughened its tone. " This is no longer possible and we say it forcefully ", launched Wednesday the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, denouncing political leaders who " are phagocytizing themselves among themselves to reach a consensus on inaction ". He spoke of the risk of a " disappearance of Lebanon ", a " country on the edge of the abyss " where " half of the population lives below the poverty line " with " appalling " unemployment and " staggering " inflation. .
But Paris defends itself against any " interference " in Lebanese affairs: " it is not for us to form the government ", insists the president's entourage. During his visit, Emmanuel Macron will have to limit his contacts with the population, again confined since August 21 following the rebound of the coronavirus. A confinement that deals an additional blow to the capital, already ravaged by the economic crisis and by the explosion of August 4.
