Montenegro: Milo Djukanovic has a new parliament elected

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Power man from Montenegro: Head of State Milo Djukanovic

Montenegro's head of state Milo Djukanovic is the longest-serving autocrat in Europe. He has ruled his country for more than three decades - he was a top functionary in late socialist Yugoslavia, then alternately Prime Minister and President, interrupted only by brief periods in which he acted from the background. The Republic of Montenegro has never seen a democratic change of power in its history.

It will probably not take place this Sunday either. President Djukanovic leaveselect a new parliament. As in all previous elections of the past three decades, however, his "Democratic Party of Socialists" (DPS) should again be the strongest force this time.

But it is not just any choice for the smallest Western Balkans country with just 620,000 inhabitants. It is taking place at a key moment for Montenegro and is also of considerable regional and European political importance.

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Has been in power in Montenegro for more than three decades: Head of State Djukanovic

The Adriatic state has been a NATO member for three years and is formally the most advanced candidate for EU membership in the region, but in practice it is one of the models of modern autocracies. Djukanovic was one of the first politicians in Europe to set up a formal democratic system, always headed by himself and whose ruling party is practically impossible to vote out.

This time, however, the parliamentary elections could be a turning point for Montenegro. For months, the country has been experiencing such massive protests against Djukanovic that it has not seen since it left the state association with Serbia and gained state independence in 2006. The trigger for this was a new denominational law at the end of last year, which is supposed to put part of the property of the powerful Serbian Orthodox Church under state control.

With the law Djukanovic not only wanted to get lucrative real estate, but above all rekindled the old dispute between Montenegrin "sovereignists" and pro-Serbian "unionists" - in Montenegro only around 45 percent of citizens declare themselves as Montenegrins and 29 percent as Serbs. It is largely the latter who have been taking to the streets in so-called cross processions for months, mobilized by the Serbian Orthodox Church and by pro-Serb opposition politicians.

The largest opposition bloc has close ties to Moscow

It is mostly about an artificial identity dispute, since many who call themselves Serbs no longer question the independence of Montenegro. The dispute, however, benefits the parties in mobilizing the voters - not only Djukanovic and his DPS, but also the largest opposition bloc "For the future of Montenegro".

It includes parties that have close ties with the autocratic Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and the Russian President Vladimir Putin. A real rule of law and European development of Montenegro is to be expected from these parties as little as from the DPS.

more on the subject

• Serbia's President: Vucic's attack on what is left of freedom by Keno Verseck

• Serbian President Vucic: "I would be hanged in Brussels" By Walter Mayr

Djukanovic has already warned that the opposition could provoke unrest during and after the election. At least major protests after the election are not unlikely, because in recent years the DPS has only been able to maintain its majorities with a sophisticated system of election manipulation. These include:

• Bribery of candidates,

• Buying votes,

• Blackmailing voters,

• Voter tourism

• and forgery of electoral rolls.

All of this has been meticulously documented by non-governmental organizations and investigative journalists in the country - so far it has had no consequences.

40,000 eligible voters who don't even exist

This time too, for example, there are around 40,000 more eligible voters in the electoral roll than officially adult citizens live in the country. It seems rather harmless that Djukanovic is not up for election as president, but is still the main campaigner of his party and namesake of the DPS election list. He is also chairman of the DPS, although according to the constitution he is not actually allowed to hold this position alongside his presidential office.

"The regime has become an oligarchy, the DPS a privileged caste that owns all monopolies."

Miodrag Perovic, publicist

A lot is at stake for him. He, his family members and a group of party and business friends have practically divided the country among themselves. They own the most lucrative sections of the Adriatic coast, they win most of the public tenders and they secretly cash in on most foreign investments. For example, the latest corruption scandal in the country revolves around money laundering in a Maltese-Montenegrin wind power project.

It is a system that the well-known Montenegrin mathematician and publicist Miodrag Perovic describes in the daily newspaper Vijesti: "The regime has become an oligarchy, the DPS a privileged caste that owns all monopolies."