Castañeda: "That AMLO changed everything with a magic wand is a lie" 2:00
Editor's Note:
Jorge G. Castañeda is a contributor to CNN.
He was Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico.
He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book is "America Through Foreign Eyes", published by Oxford University Press.
The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author.
See more opinions at CNN.com/opinion.
(CNN Spanish) -
Corruption in Mexico is legendary and ancestral.
The frustration and anger of Mexican society before her, too.
Part of that frustration and anger is due to the victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018. Mexicans were fed up with allegations of corruption against the government of Enrique Peña Nieto, but also from some of his predecessors - not all - of governors, businessmen, legislators, police and the Armed Forces.
The clamor for change was deafening.
Several events that have occurred in recent months point to this change, and at the same time contradict it.
Surveys show a society divided and perplexed by the viability and validity of change.
It is not for less.
It should be remembered that since 1977, each president - with the exception of Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón - have stigmatized and have done their part to support the investigations and that the courts imprison powerful figures close to the previous president: sometimes there have been some members of their families, members of the presidential cabinet, union leaders, businessmen or even the military.
Mexicans have good reason to feel scared or cynical in the face of new versions of old stories.
Throughout the 21 months of López Obrador's presidency, several senior officials from previous six-year terms have been detained in Mexico, the United States and Spain.
One, Rosario Robles, who is charged with improper exercise of public service, was the secretary of Social Development and is now in jail in Mexico.
Another, Genaro García Luna, Calderón's Secretary of Public Safety, is in prison in New York and faces charges related to the conspiracy to import, distribute, import and falsely declare 5 kilos of cocaine entering the United States.
Emilio Lozoya, director of Petróleos Mexicanos during the Peña Nieto government, was extradited from Madrid to Mexico City and is under house arrest.
Lozoya, after pleading not guilty to charges of money laundering, improper exercise of public service and bribery, has accused the former Secretary of the Treasury and Foreign Relations of having set up a gigantic network of corruption, and three former presidents - Salinas de Gortari, Calderón and Peña Nieto - of having incurred in serious acts of corruption.
The courts will determine if the evidence presented by Lozoya would be sufficient to file formal charges against the ex-presidents, of which only Calderón has spoken via Twitter, dismissing the accusations and calling them "political persecution."
And more recently, the government released a video showing an official handing bags and bags of money to those who would be collaborators of various opposition senators.
The accumulation of denunciations, imprisonments and scandals is unprecedented.
But as a very insightful Mexican commentator has said, it is one thing to expose and stigmatize the corrupt, and quite another to reveal proven facts of corruption.
Javier Tello refers to a traditional characteristic of these processes in Mexico: they take place in the public square, in the media, but not necessarily in court before judges without questioning honesty, and with the indispensable respect for due process.
People can be satisfied;
justice, no.
Lozoya has delivered an extensive document (63 pages) full of accusations, but so far no evidence is publicly known.
Robles has been in prison for a year for a crime, which would normally be tried with the suspect on probation, but the judge denied him that possibility.
He estimated that he could run away because he gave false information about his true address.
The US government has filed additional charges against García Luna and new arrest warrants against two of his closest collaborators, in my opinion, all this in an effort that he pleads guilty and there is no public trial that could embarrass to many American officials.
And today Lozoya embraces the criteria of opportunity to expose others, but before that, he categorically denied all the charges against him.
In other words, there are plenty of reasons to welcome the news in this crackdown on corruption, unlike the previous ones.
Simultaneously, there are strong reasons to believe that it is more of the same.
Partly because of this, many observers in Mexico have pinned their hopes on two possibilities.
The first is that, finally, if there is evidence against him, one or another former president (Calderón or Peña Nieto) is charged, tried and, where appropriate, sentenced.
Only a former president can fight in conditions of reduced asymmetry against the Mexican State.
Only someone with those credentials can enforce a transparent, fair and equitable process, guilty or not.
The second is that the involvement of the US judiciary (with García Luna and other collaborators of Peña Nieto) and Spain (the latter resides there), perhaps ensures that it will not be about lynchings "a la Mexicana" , but fair trials.
Despite everything, the trial against García will take place in the United States, and if the arrest of Peña Nieto were to be requested in Spain, a hypothetical extradition trial would be held there.
Mexico is experiencing a schizophrenic moment.
Half the country believes in López Obrador and his crusade against corruption, half do not.
Hope has foundations, skepticism too.
The good thing is, it is about a moment, precisely: it cannot last forever.
AMLO Emilio Lozoya