Abe's Unfinished Japan

Shinzo Abe says goodbye during his last press conference as Prime Minister, on August 28 in TokyoPOOL / Reuters

When Shinzo Abe burst into the press room on August 28, everyone already knew what he was going to announce.

The officials bowed as he passed, a gesture that he repeated in turn before the Nisshoku, the national flag, placed on one side of the podium.

After removing the mask, he began by extending his condolences to the families of the victims of the coronavirus and his gratitude to the health workers, until the key moment arrived.

"I have decided to resign as prime minister."

The man who had tried to cement a new narrative for Japan was forced to leave power, again due to health problems, without being able to complete his political work.

The beginning of his project dates from 1993, the year in which he was able to gain access to a seat for the first time.

As the grandson of a prime minister and the son of a foreign minister, there was no question that politics was his destiny.

He ascended the ladder of power until in 2006 he was elected by the National Diet - the Japanese Parliament - as the new Prime Minister to replace Junichiro Koizumi, becoming at 52 years old the youngest head of government in the history of Japan after the World War II and the first born after the conflict.

The world has changed a lot since then: among the great world leaders, only Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel survive at the head of their respective countries.

However, just a year later he was forced to resign because of his chronic ulcerative colitis.

Japan plunged into a time of institutional instability, with five different prime ministers over the next five years.

In 2009, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) lost a general election for the first time since its founding in 1955. Until in 2012, Abe returned thanks to the emergence of a new treatment.

It swept the elections that same year and also in 2014 and 2017, returning balance to the country.

When a relapse last week forced him to step aside, he did so as the longest-serving prime minister.

Abe, 65, will step down as prime minister on September 16, when Parliament will appoint the PLD's designated successor in an internal election.

The president has been characterized as a nationalist conservative and is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an influential organization that promotes historical revisionism.

“I would describe him as a moderate nationalist,” says Scott Seaman, Asia director of the Eurasia consultancy, “in the sense that he aspires to make Japan more clear about its own identity and look to the future instead of the past. ”.

“In his view, World War II ended a long time ago.

Most of the citizens that make up the country's society today were not born and he does not want them to feel guilty.

He wanted his presidency to mark a definitive end to the post-war era and that is why it was so important for him to modify the Constitution ”.

The current pacifist Constitution has been in force since 1957 and was imposed by the United States during its occupation.

Its reform is a controversial issue and a perennial ambition of the PLD.

The Magna Carta establishes that Japan renounces to exercise the sovereign right of belligerence.

The country, in fact, does not have an Army as such, although it does have a Self-Defense Forces that in practice fulfill the same function.

In 2014, with the blessing of US President Barack Obama, Abe made a first approach to reinterpret the text and give more powers to the security forces, but made no progress.

In his farewell speech, he made explicit mention of this issue.

“I have a year left in my mandate and there are many tasks to be carried out.

I must apologize for resigning without resolving the constitutional reform, which causes me great regret ”.

It is not the only historical wound to heal.

The territorial conflict with Russia over the Kuril Islands is still open, which is why both countries have not yet signed a peace treaty that officially closes World War II.

Neither does the relationship with neighboring countries, China and South Korea, who consider that Japan has not shown a sufficient dose of regret regarding its invading past.

Or the abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea in the late 1970s, an issue to which Abe has attached great importance and on which he has spoken out repeatedly.

However, one of its great thorns is not having been able to celebrate the Tokyo Olympics this year, initially delayed to 2021 and destined to be the icing on the cake of its legacy.

“I think his greatest achievement has been remembering that Japan is still a powerful, dynamic and global player.

In the eighties it seemed that it was going to prevail, but its history since then is that of a country in decline ", Seaman emphasizes.

"His main mission has been to question that idea."

Abe closed his last press conference with a bow to those present in the room and again to the flag.

The world has changed a lot since he came to power.

Japan too, although not as much as he would have liked.

The 'Abeconomy' flag

When Shinzo Abe ran for election in 2012, he did so with the economy as the flag.

His famous program, known as Abeconomy, combined monetary expansion, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms.

This recipe was intended to reactivate anemic inflation, which never reached the longed-for target of 2%, and led the country to its second longest growth stage in half a century.

"The stimulus campaign that followed his first election was probably his biggest hit," says Marcel Thieliant, Japan economist at Capital Economics.

“Abe has been a reformist who has reaped successes on several fronts, such as promoting the incorporation of women into the labor market, promoting an opening to immigration and reducing unemployment;

although they have also contributed favorable cyclical conditions ”.

Not all have been good decisions: the two VAT increases led the country to recessions.

It also leaves a colossal public debt equivalent to 234% of GDP, the highest in the world.

"The country now needs a strong leader," Abe himself admitted.

Everything indicates that it will be Suga Yoshihide, current Chief Secretary of the Cabinet.

The PLD will bet on him for a continuist policy until the completion of Abe's mandate in September 2021. His successor must manage the pandemic and its economic consequences, as well as anticipate long-term issues such as the demographic evolution of an increasingly aging country. or the remnants of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.