Guaidó's attrition is precipitating

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó in Caracas on March 28.Cristian Hernández / AFP

The return of Henrique Capriles to the front line of Venezuelan politics, with his bid to participate in the December 6 elections, has not only sharpened the chronic differences in the opposition.

It has also further compromised the future of Juan Guaidó, whom dozens of countries still recognize as the interim president of Venezuela, a position with little real power but with weight, especially for the international community.

The difficulty in offering an alternative to electoral participation and the lack of results of his strategy to remove Maduro from power have encouraged a chorus of critics.

Furthermore, the majority of Venezuelans have given up hope in the outcome of their efforts.

Guaidó, 37, was practically unknown in January 2019, when he was appointed president of the National Assembly and sworn in as president in charge of Venezuela, a position that was recognized by about 60 countries, including the United States and a large part of the European Union. including Spain.

None of those countries has given up considering him still interim president, but reality marks another path.

After almost two years, Guaidó's strategy, which began the year receiving an ovation from the US Congress, has hardly borne any internal results and the creation of a parallel structure, especially abroad - "Internet Government", Capriles called, “he has raised many suspicions in Venezuela.

The failed paramilitary incursion of last May, in which he was splashed, was another blow that has ended up propping up the Capriles maneuver this week.

Although he remains a benchmark, Guaidó's credibility has eroded.

Everything indicates that Guaidó is playing on the court with the clock against him: Capriles's possible participation in the parliamentary elections - seen favorably by much of European diplomacy, including Spain - could further weaken his positions in the context. international, its greatest asset today.

For the moment, Guaidó still has the unrestricted support of Washington.

The political scientist and writer Colette Capriles believes that the end of Guaidó's cycle is approaching and, while still concentrating a large part of the opposition, his alliances are compromised.

“This process can break the unanimity of the international community around Guaidó.

Maduro, by dividing the opposition, also divides the foreign allies on whom Guaidó has become highly dependent, especially the United States. "

“The gap that must be opened then,” points out the political scientist, “is to recalculate, as GPS devices do.

A postponement of the elections, as several actors have suggested, would be a space in which the horizon of a negotiated solution could be drawn, such as the one that was being attempted under the auspices of Norway ”.

The possibility of finding a negotiated end is what the EU's Foreign High Representative, Josep Borrell, pointed to this week.

The fight against Chavismo has meant the sacrifice of many leaderships over the last few years.

For the political scientist Luis Salamanca, Guaidó is experiencing the natural deterioration of his.

"When you don't have a knockout punch (KO), you have to keep boxing to undermine the other," he says.

“There is an error of interpretation in thinking that since the maximum has not been achieved, nothing has been achieved.

Guaidó has achieved many things.

Logic tells you that you have to keep working ”.

Salamanca fears an even greater risk than Guaidó's survival: “There is a serious danger of a massive disbandment of opposition parties and citizens.

People are already very frustrated. "

With all the differences, Guaidó has for many months withheld the support of almost all the major opposition parties.

However, leaders more akin to the Capriles sector show their annoyance at the tutelage of conservative US sectors.

Some leaders close to Guaidó fear that there will be defections in favor of Capriles.

Primero Justicia, the formation to which Capriles belongs and one of the fundamental parties of the opposition unit, has had long debates in recent days about the announcement of one of its fundamental leaders.

In particular because among its bases there are many people who consider that going to the legislature continues to be the only option to confront Maduro.

Chavismo, meanwhile, has continued to take steps to tempt opponents and divide their insides.

To the more than 100 pardons for prisoners and persecuted persons and the letter inviting the EU and the UN to participate as observers of the elections, a Supreme Court decision was added on Friday, which annulled the appointment of dissident Luis Parra at most representative of Primero Justicia, theoretically returning control of the party to its leaders, one of the demands of the opposition.

It is expected that the same will happen with Democratic Action and Popular Will.

Acknowledge mistakes

Primero Justicia issued a statement in which it maintained that it will not participate in the elections, because there are no electoral conditions and the pandemic prevents its celebration.

But although he remembers that whoever violates this line will be sanctioned, the text throws a dart at Guaidó: “We must humbly acknowledge a series of errors and the inability to rectify the conduct of the interim government, which have prevented the defeat of the dictatorship and alleviated the suffering of Venezuelans ”.

The text proposes "opening a frank debate to rethink the organization and action of the opposition," which shows that not even within the so-called G4, which brings together the main opposition parties, Guaidó has guaranteed support for his Roadmap.

For Salamanca, Capriles is looking for a way to regain his leadership in what will undoubtedly be the next cycle for the opposition.

But he warns that, without Guaidó, he will not have a mobilization force, so unity continues to be a necessary condition.

Salamanca points out that what Guaidó has achieved is what in military terms can be called "beachhead," referring to that moment when, if reinforcements arrived, it could go from defensive to offensive.

Guaidó's wear, in the opinion of writer and political analyst Pedro Benítez, is completely logical and this does not necessarily mean that the end of his cycle is approaching.

“Guaidó raised expectations that have not been met and that has reduced his support.

However, he still has many strong cards with him and the most important of all, in addition to international and Latin American support, is that he continues to be a popular leader ”.

Colette Capriles points to a not inconsiderable aspect: the sanctions against the government and the Chavista leadership.

“Without them, Maduro would not be in a position to give up anything.

The objective of Chavismo in the elections is to take Guaidó out of the game.

If they are in December, she would achieve it, even declaring the continuity of the interim government, which would be a government in exile, as it already practically is.

The extension of the interim government has no legal basis, although it could be sought, but it also has no political basis ”.