The historic settlement reached by Serbia and Kosovo under Trump is a kind of compromise • However, it is not at all certain that the long-running conflict will really end • Interpretation
The signing of the agreement between Kosovo and Serbia in the White House // Photo: Reuters
The announcement on Friday at the White House of the signing of an economic cooperation agreement between Kosovo and Serbia was received in Israel with a degree of surprise, especially due to the clauses in the agreement that were a diplomatic achievement for Israel.
While the establishment of full diplomatic relations with Kosovo is a long-standing aspiration of the small Balkan Republic, suffering from unconsciousness on the part of many countries in the world, the relocation of the Serbian embassy to Jerusalem is a real sacrifice for Serbs, who want to maintain good relations with the Muslim world.
But beyond the surprising stumbling block of the Jewish state to the burning Balkan issue, the agreement signed at most ceremonies in the Oval Office may have profound implications for one of Europe’s most explosive and conflicted regions and could doom the region in the coming years, whether to peace and prosperity or continued stagnation or even war.
But to understand the complex relationship between Kosovo, a tiny country with a Muslim Albanian majority, and Serbia, the largest and most powerful of the former Yugoslav states, one must dive into the modern history that created Kosovo and Serbia, along with a deep sense of hostility and mistrust between the two countries.
A history of violence
The beginning of the process that led to Kosovo's independence comes in the days of the loosening of Yugoslavia's central government in the late 1980s.
The Albanian-Muslim majority group in Kosovo, which was then a cultural autonomy within Serbia, began to demand increasing independence, initially mainly in the areas of culture, language, education and local government.
The Belgrade government has done everything in its power to prevent greater Albanian autonomy in Kosovo for two reasons, one is a perception that Kosovo is the birthplace of Serbia and the other is a concern for the large Serb minority living in the region.
Despite Belgrade's repressive efforts, Albanian ballads in Kosovo gained influence and gained control, while Yugoslavia disintegrated and Belgrade sank to the neck in war elsewhere in the crumbling state.
In 1992, separatists announced the establishment of an independent state.
The declaration began a long line of sectoral acts of violence between Serbian residents, aided by the Serbian army and police, and Albanian separatists.
The paramilitary organization of the Kosovars, the Kosovo Liberation Army, did not resort to severe atrocities against the Serbian population, and on the other hand, the Serbian army and militias also carried out a horrific wave of massacres and atrocities.
The brutal conduct of the Serbian army, which began to take on more and more dimensions of ethnic cleansing, led to NATO intervention, led by the United States, and in 1998 the Allied bombing campaign against the Serbian army began. At the same time, the Serbian army launched a campaign of revenge within Kosovo. The campaign resulted in the deaths of nearly 10,000 civilians, nearly 1.5 million refugees, the rape of more than 20,000 women, the destruction of a third and mosques in the country.
The US intervention ended in 1999 when NATO forces entered Kosovo territory and the Serbian army withdrew. Kosovo Liberation Army forces were disarmed and a local Kosovo government, representing mainly the Albanian majority in the territory, began conducting ongoing peacekeeping operations. Of the UN were given security authority on the ground.
In 2008, after the withdrawal of most of the foreign forces from the territory of the country, and after an attempt to bring about an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia that would lead to an agreed definition of its future failed, Kosovo declared its independence.
Only 1122 UN member states have recognized Kosovo's independence and Serbia still stands in opposition to politically recognizing Kosovo's independence.
And who won?
The agreement signed yesterday in the White House is the first swallow of Serbian recognition of the government sitting in Pristina, but it rests solely on economic pillars.
Although not a political solution to end hostility, the idea behind the agreement is that economic cooperation, easing movement restrictions between Kosovo and Serbia and a freer movement of goods could lead to a greater willingness of both sides in the future to find a solution.
The pressure from the EU and the United States to reach an agreement found the two leaders of the countries in a vulnerable position.
On the one hand, Alexander Vujicic and his government faced an unprecedented protest against their rule this year and a significant drop in the ruling party's popularity in the polls.
On the other hand, the past of the president of Kasovo, accused Tachi, as commander of the "Kosovo Liberation Army", again persecuted him and he is accused in the court in Kosovo of war crimes.
"For the Kosovo prime minister, this agreement is significant news to bring home even if Israel recognized Kosovo after all the years Kosovo has begged and longed for something like this," explains Or-El Beilinson, a Yale University historian.
"For Wojciech, this is a rather modest achievement, not to say too much, that comes down from the story of recognizing Kosovo politically in the meantime and he can tell at home that he prevented Trump from making the treaty trilateral, which is a consideration for recognizing Kosovo's independence," Beilinson explains.
"But all this is not enough. I do not think there will be a war, but Vechich will have to work hard to think what his next step in the domestic arena is to defend his rule. He was elected to give, by and large, economic liberalization and progress in joining the EU. Economic progress "It has been halted and the attempt to bring about economic normalization with Kosovo will soon stop when the next step is political. The EU will not want economic normalization and the citizens of Serbia will not let it recognize Kosovo but will continue to demand it to join the EU," Beilinson said.
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