Eduardo Paladini
06/09/2020 - 15:32
Clarín.com
Politics
The graph, on page 7 of the report, is striking.
It has a green
"Pass" line
and a red
"Fail" line
.
It reflects people's response to "what Alberto Fernández is doing in relation to the coronavirus."
It is a question that the
Poliarquía
consultancy
, one of the most recognized, has
been asking
since the beginning of March.
In the third week of April you see a green peak of 84% and a red floor of 9%.
But since then, these variables have tended to converge and today they are only 14 points apart: 53% and 39%.
It is, perhaps, one of the statistics that
best reflects the fall
in the image of the President, because it affects a central nerve: the handling of the crisis by Covid.
Where it had become extremely strong, now it is not so strong.
The latest Poliarquía study included a survey of
1,678
telephone
cases
,
between August 31 and September 3
, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4%.
It was surveyed in urban centers with more than 10,000 inhabitants and only those over 18 years of age.
The Poliarquía graph that shows how the approval of the President regarding the handling of the coronavirus falls.
They are data from this month.
The course of the curves has well marked moments and, for now,
a very similar beginning and ending
.
At the beginning of March, when the first official contagion in the country was known, Fernández had 48 points of approval and 34 of disapproval in health management: a gap in favor of 14 points.
Today it shows the same distance, but after having gained 5 points both parameters.
Alejandro Catterberg
, director of Poliarquía,
thus analyzed the
President's
numbers
, from a more general view of his image: "Why do I think Alberto Fernández had and still has relatively high levels of popularity? This depended on three variables:
- Number 1: what was their initial position regarding the coronavirus and the pandemic, which was
in tune with what a social majority demanded
and received well.
Alberto Fernández's closeness to Cristina had a negative impact on his image.
Here, in the announcement for the debt in La Rosada.
Photo Marcelo Carroll.
- Number 2: a
positioning that surpasses the crack
.
The press conferences in which the President sat next to Axel Kicillof and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, which have now ended, were conferences in which society saw a political class that seemed to unite and unify, plus a President speaking in a moderate tone.
Those conferences had
50 rating points at the beginning
, like the World Cup final.
Then they dropped to 40 points, but remained above 30 points.
Every 15 days, that most depoliticized Argentine, who was having a very bad time and does not watch so many news or political programs,
saw that image of Alberto Fernández and appreciated it
. "
- Number 3: the last point is that we have come in the last three or four months, with
inflation running at 2%
, which is half of what we had been having.
Now these three factors
have an expiration date
.
The
inflation
is leaving to run at 2% and
is heading for 3% to 4%
, and you
have to see to what number will come.
The press conferences and that attitude of Alberto Fernández of
moderation
and of not
entering the crack
have
also
disappeared
.
Plus the Kirchnerized President's speech, plus Cristina's presence, they have forced Alberto Fernández to come towards her.
And there is beginning to be
tiredness and disagreement in how he handled the coronavirus
.
Those three factors that held the President to a very high approval rating are in the process of fading. "
The crack, present in the data
In addition to the overall number regarding how the President handled and handles the management of the crisis by the Covid,
Poliarquía
disaggregate the results as variables Five: voting in 2019, gender, age, socioeconomic status and place of residence.
It is clear from the data by political affinity that the rift is more alive than ever: the percentages between
K and M voters are practically reversed
.
Those from the Frente de Todos approve by 84% and disapprove by 12%, while those from Juntos por el Cambio disapprove by 72% and approve by 17%.
In both cases, fill in the "ns / nc".
The approval of the President in the handling of the coronavirus, according to gender, age, social class and area of residence.
They are Polyarchy data for September.
In the rest of the items, the
greatest differences
are seen in the results
by social class
: those from the lower class pass 60%, against only 35% high.
Interestingly, the middle class gives just the general average: 53%.
In the division
by region
, although at some point approval was clearly higher in the province of Buenos Aires and in the interior than in the City, now the
numbers are quite close
.
