The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Economic recession due to coronavirus: a vaccine will not cure the global economy

2020-09-07T17:30:19.693Z


Although an effective vaccine has been touted as the magic bullet that will get the global economy back on track quickly, there are reasons why the recovery may s ...


Reinhart, on the current economy: "There is no historical comparison" 1:59

London (CNN Business) -

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has asked states to be ready to distribute a coronavirus vaccine by the end of October.

Pfizer believes it will have enough data to ask the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to authorize its possible vaccine next month.

Most experts think it is unlikely, but not impossible, that a vaccine will be ready before the US election.

But with at least seven candidates in phase three trials, it is highly likely that at least one successful vaccine will emerge in the coming months.

Drug companies are also racing to develop effective treatments for the disease.

  • The likelihood that the United States will have the COVID-19 vaccine available this year is "extremely low," says former FDA commissioner

The Lancet: Russian Vaccine Has No Serious Adverse Effects 3:05

An effective vaccine has been touted as the magic bullet that will get the world economy back on track quickly.

However, there are reasons why recovery can be slow: vaccines are generally not 100% effective, and there will be a limited number of doses for everyone.

Distribution could be a problem, both between and within countries.

Even if those challenges are overcome, some people may choose not to get vaccinated.

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, recently wrote in a research note that there are a variety of potential outcomes for economies once a vaccine is certified.

And it would be wrong, he said, to assume that a vaccine will transform the economic outlook for next year.

'At one end of the spectrum is a highly effective vaccine that is rapidly produced and distributed.

At the other is a less effective vaccine that faces significant production and distribution challenges and which would be relatively rare in 2021, "said Shearing.

"In most intermediate scenarios, containment measures, including physical distancing and restrictions on some foreign travel, are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future."

The first challenge is the vaccine itself

: The World Health Organization has said it would prefer a vaccine to be at least 70% effective, but has set its minimum threshold for a Covid-19 vaccine at 50%.

That means that all other vaccinated people may still be at risk for an infection that would prevent them from working and spending money.

  • Good news in the fight against coronavirus: possible treatments, vaccines and findings

Scientists in the US would create a new strain of covid-19 3:42

Supply is another important factor

: According to Shearing, the developers' figures suggest that 1 billion doses may be available this year, with another 7 billion ready for distribution in 2021. But those figures assume that several vaccines have been approved and the supply could become significantly low.

Specialized needles and syringes will be needed to administer the vaccine, but countries, including the United States, don't have enough on hand.

There is also a global shortage of glass vials to deal with.

The WHO does not expect widespread vaccines until the middle of next year, a spokesman said on Friday.

Finally, many people are reluctant to get vaccinated

: according to a survey commissioned by Deutsche Bank, only 61% of people in France say they plan to get vaccinated if one is certified in the next six months, while the same is true for 70 % and 75% of Germans, Italians, Spanish, British and Americans.

In Europe, only half of the population agreed that "vaccines are safe," the bank said last week in a research note.

"From the perspective of the global economy, the problem is not as simple as whether or not there is a vaccine," Shearing said.

Market Outlook

: Biotech and pharmaceutical stocks like Moderna have soared this year on the promise of developing a potential vaccine, in part due to enthusiasm from retail investors.

Traders who have been buying shares on platforms like Robinhood could get burned if the tests don't pay off or if distribution challenges arise.

'Mulan' is going to have to conquer the world

A Disney essay that can transform cinema 1:15

Studies hope that international revenue could help sustain Hollywood as the United States struggles to regain its footing after a clumsy response to the coronavirus.

Theatrical releases in the United States are just beginning, the income from other countries, especially China, but also Europe, is the most followed barometer for the industry.

My colleagues Frank Pallotta and Brian Lowry report that America is not even part of Disney's theatrical strategy for "Mulan" this weekend.

After multiple delays, the studio will release the live remake of the 1998 animated classic only on its new Disney + streaming service in the United States this Friday.

It will also be released in theaters in a handful of international markets.

The idea of ​​a blockbuster like "Mulan" opening in theaters abroad but not in the United States was inconceivable just a few months ago.

The move could be a "transformative" moment for Hollywood, according to Aynne Kokas, associate professor at the University of Virginia and author of "Hollywood Made In China."

“The United States is the largest box office market in the world.

It will likely not hold that title this year if covid-19 restrictions continue, ”Kokas said.

"This could be a bump if the United States is able to return to its previous situation, or it could be a turning point."

Another potentially blockbuster film - "Tenet" - made its debut in China on Friday.

Theaters in the country began to reopen in July, a month before the United States.

("Tenet" is produced by Warner Bros, which, like CNN, is owned by WarnerMedia.)

China's movie theaters have already enjoyed some success since their reopening, including with the war epic "The Eight Hundred."

The film has grossed $ 277 million in China since its release last month, making it the third-highest performing film of the year, according to Box Office Mojo.

What's next for this week

Monday:

US markets are closed

Tuesday:

Slack and Lululemon earnings

Wednesday:

inflation data from China;

Meeting of the Bank of Canada;

GameStop Earnings

Thursday:

Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;

Chewy and Peloton earnings;

Meeting of the European Central Bank

Friday: US

inflation data;

Kroger earnings

covid-19 coronavirus vaccine

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-09-07

You may like

News/Politics 2024-01-30T09:19:55.790Z

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-03-28T06:04:53.137Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.