Eduardo Paladini
09/07/2020 - 17:10
Clarín.com
Politics
When he has not yet completed 9 months of management, the figure of Alberto Fernández is already a reason for study.
Not only because of his gestation as an imposed candidate, but because of the particular impact that the coronavirus pandemic was generating in his surroundings.
One of the consulting firms that has been analyzing the phenomenon has just published a
new work
.
And it comes to a political conclusion.
From the end of March and the beginning of April, when he had his peak of popularity, public opinion
began to mimic his image
with that of Cristina Kirchner, his vice and mentor, with uneven results:
he lost a lot, while she gained a little
.
The signature that shows the tour is
Synopsis
.
Taking as a basis the respondents who expressed a positive assessment of one of the two main leaders of the Frente de Todos, he created a graph that shows the evolution in a didactic way.
With
four stops
: April, May, June and August.
As stated, the President reached his climax of support during the onset of the pandemic.
According to data from the consulting firm, at that peak, when it exceeded 50 positive image points, an
unprecedented
event occurred
for a presidential duo
: almost half of the respondents who loved Alberto Fernández did not want the vice.
How the images of Alberto and Cristina were mixed, according to the Synopsis consultancy.
What happened then?
As Clarín said at that time, with a crack numbed by the shock of the pandemic, and even at some point with Cristina outside the country, the
President captured sympathy within the macrista public
.
The photo today is very different.
Alberto Fernández lost that bonus that he achieved due to his dialogue and moderate stance, and today, only 23.8% of that universe has a positive image of him but not of her.
The differentiation was reduced to less than half that in April
.
Seen from another side: now, 72.9% have a good image of both.
It is what
Synopsis
called a process of political "mimicry".
People begin to see them alike and share more and more admirers and detractors.
When you look at the gross image data of both, it is clear
who won and who lost
: in the April cut, the President had 53.2% positive image and the vice, 27.6%.
It almost doubled it
.
In August, the gap narrowed to less than 10 points.
Alberto Fernández 38.9% (down 14.3 points) against Cristina's 30.6% (up 3).
President Alberto Fernandez with Cristina Fernández, at the opening of the ordinary sessions in Congress, on March 1.
Photo Emmanuel Fernández.
Lucas Romero, political scientist and director of
Synopsis
explains
:
- "The base of sympathies of Alberto Fernández (that is, people who have a good image of him), increasingly resembles that of Cristina Kirchner. This has
political implications
, because it takes away the margin of autonomy (makes him more dependent on the electorate that adheres to the figure of the vice president and her ideas), and takes away added value from her political leadership. "
- "If Alberto's reason for being was that he expanded the scope of the Front for Victory in order to achieve the Front for All, the fact of becoming more and more similar to Cristina
takes away the raison d'être of his leadership
."
- "At the end of March, as a consequence of the initial way in which Alberto Fernández managed the crisis due to the coronavirus, the President had managed to gather sympathy from a
significant portion of people who were not voters of the Frente de Todos
."
- "That particularity had
enhanced his main political asset
: the differentiation with Cristina Kirchner. The idea of being different from Cristina and that this has value was an essential part of Alberto Fernández's electoral argument."
Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, at the start of the campaign, on May 25, 2019.
- "But with the passing of time, and probably due to some actions and decisions that have been taken throughout these 9 months, the President was losing those sympathies that he had won from outside voters, and his image, in light of the public perception,
has been mimicking that of Cristina "
.
- "This entails an
enormous risk for its leadership
since it undermines its reason for being and neutralizes its electoral functionality. If it cannot further expand the support base of the ruling party, the ruling party may demand another type of leadership."
If Alberto Fernández cannot expand, cannot add something else, it will be difficult for him to sustain his need for leadership. And this is
of decisive importance for next year's electoral process
since the ruling party must revalidate that 2019 electoral commitment: that the Frente de Todos was not the Front for Victory. "
