Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rebound to + 17% in the third quarter, a little less than previously forecast, INSEE said on Tuesday, due to the lower loss of activity recorded in the second quarter which mechanically limits the magnitude of this rebound.
The National Institute of Statistics, however, confirmed its forecast of a GDP contraction of around 9% over the whole of 2020, predicting that "
at the end of the year, economic activity would remain still below its pre-crisis level
”, by around -4%.
In the fourth quarter, GDP is expected to grow by only 1%, "
reflecting the divergence between sectors almost returned to normal and others remaining depressed,
" adds the institute in its conjuncture.
If "
deconfinement has allowed the relatively rapid rebound of part of economic activity
", the French economy "
approaches the start of the school year as an engine that would be both restrained and doped
", underlines INSEE.
Restricted, because the health context continues to penalize the activity of certain sectors, such as air transport or events, and boosted by the emergency measures deployed by the government to which will be added the effects of the recovery plan.
INSEE underlines “
the risk of a significant demand shock
”, with consumption remaining sluggish due to household confidence still below its pre-crisis level.
As a result, the recovery of the economy will be "
slower
" by the end of the year.
