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The Hamas Leadership Race: Who's Against Whom? | Israel today

2020-09-08T21:51:38.698Z


| the Middle EastYahya Sinwar is favored by Egypt • Khaled Mashaal wants a comeback • While Ismail Haniyeh is supported by Ankara, but is also attentive to Tehran Mash'al, Sinwar and Haniyeh Photo:  AFP, Reuters In November, the eyes of the whole world will be on the US presidential election, but just below our noses will come another end of a race full of passions and interests, which will have a major impac


Yahya Sinwar is favored by Egypt • Khaled Mashaal wants a comeback • While Ismail Haniyeh is supported by Ankara, but is also attentive to Tehran

  • Mash'al, Sinwar and Haniyeh

    Photo: 

    AFP, Reuters

In November, the eyes of the whole world will be on the US presidential election, but just below our noses will come another end of a race full of passions and interests, which will have a major impact on Israel: the election for the chairmanship of the Hamas political bureau.

Photo: From the Al-Manar network (archive)

In the elections, which will be held alongside the internal elections for Hamas institutions, the current bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, his predecessor Khaled Mashaal, and Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, will run.

There is a chance that Haniyeh's deputy, Saleh al-Aruri, will also jump into the arena.

Mashaal is assisted by Qatar and Turkey

In the background of the election, there is a struggle between Iran and Turkey and Qatar, and Egypt also plays a role in the drama.

But to understand the balance of power, one has to go nine years back.

The civil war in Syria that broke out in March 2011 presented the Hamas leadership led by Khaled Mashaal, who was based in Damascus, with a dilemma: Mashaal wanted to show neutrality, Assad demanded support.

The problem was solved when Mashaal was forced to leave Syria and move his activities to Doha, the capital of Qatar.

"In this move, Mash'al broke away from Syria and Iran - and joined the axis of Turkey and Qatar," explains Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs.

Mashaal's second crisis came in Operation Eitan in 2014, when he clashed with the military wing, and especially with Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Daf.

"He had a planting agent who was the battalion commander of the military wing in the Zeitoun area," says Ben Menachem. "He would call him and report to him what was happening in the military wing, and Hamas executed him."

Even before the crisis with Assad, Mash'al approached Turkey.

In 2006, Ahmet Davutoglu, the then adviser to Recep Tayyip Erdogan on foreign affairs, opened the gate to Mash'al while visiting the headquarters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Six years later came the "publication" of relations with Erdogan: Mash'al Nam at an event marking a decade for the AKP.

All these events and many subsequent visits deepened relations between Turkey and the terrorist organization.

"Turkey regards Hamas as a legitimate factor in its eyes, because in its view they were elected in democratic elections," said Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Inrojek, a modern Turkish researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and Tel Aviv University. "Erdogan sees Hamas' own relationship as a way to As a "good Muslim" who cares about the oppressed. "

Haniyeh is furious in Cairo

The tightening of relations with Ankara was not enough for Mash'al, and in the previous elections for the chairmanship of the Politburo he was replaced by Ismail Haniyeh.

"It is the military arm that is connected to Iran that led to Haniyeh's victory and the placement of Yahya Sinwar as Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip," Ben-Menachem said.

Then came the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, on January 3 this year, and he really did not get on well with Haniyeh.

He left the Gaza Strip even before the assassination to start the election campaign, pledging to Egypt that he would not visit Iran.

However, Haniyeh chose to come to Tehran for Suleimani's funeral procession, and even said there during a speech "Suleimani is a martyr of Jerusalem."

Since then, Cairo has been angry with him and refuses to allow him to return to his home in the Gaza Strip.

Two weeks ago the Egyptians did not even allow his wife and two daughters and husbands to move to Qatar to reunite with Haniyeh the Elder.

Sinwar: Decided to disengage from ISIS

The one who was educated during this period to raise his horn in the eyes of Egyptian President 'Abd al-Fatah al-Sisi is Sinwar, who is not endowed with Mash'al's strategic abilities and Haniyeh's impressive rhetoric, but knows how to take advantage of existing situations.

"He is taking care to develop relations with the Egyptian officials," Ben Menachem adds, "he decided to disengage from ISIS in Sinai - and accepted the opening of the Rafah crossing. He is also the father of 'return marches' ideas and incendiary balloons."

"The election of Sinwar will return the leadership to the Strip"

While Sinwar takes care of the Gaza Strip and also receives the support of the military arm, Haniyeh and Mash'al are in a "race" to get votes from the Palestinian diaspora in the Persian Gulf and Lebanon.

Haniyeh, unlike Mash'al, is much more extroverted in this activity.

He was scheduled for August 22 with Turkish President Erdogan at his palace in Istanbul - received millions of dollars in cash from him, and starting last week he is touring Lebanon and handing out the money.

"All the money that Erdogan sends for donations is intended to conquer the hearts of the oppressed peoples who will see him as a 'big brother,'" explains Dr. Cohen Inrojek. During his visit to Lebanon, Haniyeh not only delivered speeches in the Palestinian refugee camps, Shiite terrorism - with the help of a meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in his office in Beirut.

The meeting came against the background of the calm that Sinwar received in Gaza, and proved once again who the boss in the Gaza Strip is: he reached an agreement with Israel in Qatari coordination without updating Haniyeh.

And what about the organization's activities around the world?

"The identity of the electorate is unlikely to affect Hamas affiliates and activities in remote places such as Yemen, where there are at least three representatives of the Houthi rebels," said Dr. Michael Barak, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism Policy at the IDC. There are also senior members of the military wing who came to learn from the Houthi capabilities. "Another Israeli military problem with Hamas is the terrorist organization's activity in Malaysia." The military wing of Hamas is strengthening there, "Dr. Barak emphasizes." The organization has training camps there. Even today - about two and a half years after the engineer Fadi al-Batch was killed there. "

Another significant issue will be the elections to the Shura Council, which is responsible for making unanimous decisions regarding strategic decisions.

"Sinwar's election as head of the Politburo will return the leadership center to the Gaza Strip," notes Ben Menachem.

His election will also lead to the election of a new Hamas leader for the Gaza Strip itself.

Non-transparent elections

And what is the situation in the race, you ask?

It is difficult to assess, for several reasons: there is no organized list of candidates, there is no pool of voters that allows the Palestinian public to know who the voters are, and there is no date announced by Hamas.

In practice, the Shura Council convenes secretly at a secret time, and the entire election process is conducted in a secret location and in strict compartmentalization.

The identity of the elected council is revealed in an official announcement, and it must not be challenged.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2020-09-08

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