The election for the chairmanship of the organization's political bureau will mark its future. • Assessment: The leader will be a candidate who grew up in the movement • Interpretation
Members of the military arm
Photo:
AFP
The elections for the chairmanship of Hamas' political bureau will mark the political and geopolitical trajectory of the coming years of the terrorist organization, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since removing the Palestinian Authority and Fatah operatives in 2007. Since then, there has been a rift between the Palestinian factions and Gaza and the West Bank. Palestinian society, however, also harms its national interests.
Hamas has been running for more than a decade as the one that effectively controls sovereign, independent and autonomous territory.
The organization operates in the Gaza Strip separate institutions from the Palestinian Authority, education and health systems, a "blue" tax collection mechanism and police forces, and of course the national security and intelligence mechanisms operating alongside the military wing of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
Thus, the elections for the presidency and the identity of the person who will head the movement's most important institution will have a major impact on the fate of the Gaza Strip and its more than 1.5 million residents, who are groaning under severe humanitarian crisis, severe unemployment, collapsing medical system and Israeli blockade of Hamas terrorism and armed factions.
Since the deal to release Gilad Shalit in 2011, which led to the release of 1,000 Palestinian terrorists, including Yahya Sinwar, the movement's political leadership has undergone a process of "striping."
In the past, those who headed the Politburo - the body entrusted with foreign and security policy - were elements such as Musa Abu Marzouk and then Khaled Mashaal, who live abroad with their families and enjoy the pleasures of life that offer beers in the evenings away from the crowded refugee camps of the Gaza Strip. The movement boasts leaders coming from those refugee camps in the Gaza Strip, such as the current head of the political bureau and the strong man in the organization, Ismail Haniyeh, his deputy Saleh al-Aruri, Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and commanders of the military wing Muhammad Daf and Marwan Issa - all born and educated in the camps. The Israelis.
The fact that the backbone of Hamas' political and military leadership is almost entirely composed of members of the Gaza Strip is felt in the policy dictated by the organization: unlike in the past, the interests of the Strip's rulers and peacekeepers come first, also at the expense of members of the bureaucracy living in Lebanon, Malaysia and Turkey. Align with the "strip" nature of the movement's leadership.
The reason for this is an attempt to avoid further harm to their political status, as those who do not receive power bases at the center of the political activity currently in the organization, which is carried out by the movement's institutions in the Gaza Strip.
It is estimated that the fact that Israel and Hamas are having indirect contacts mediated by Egypt and other factors for long-term settlement in the Gaza Strip will lead to the selection of a candidate who grew up in the Strip - continued the tenure of Ismail Haniyeh elected in 2017, or Sinwar's number one man in the movement.
However, Khaled Mashaal also has a good chance of being elected, who headed the bureau for almost two decades and strengthened the movement's political power, but clashed with senior members of the military and lost much of his status.
Haniyeh's deputy, al-Aruri, who works in Beirut and is highly regarded by the movement's political leaders and senior members of the military wing, also has a chance.
The election process for the chairmanship of the political bureau and for other key positions in the movement is carried out secretly and in complete compartmentalization by members of the Shura council of the movement, whose identities are confidential.
Such a mechanism, which can also not be appealed, facilitates the selection of the man who will head the Hamas movement in the coming years.
Whoever it is - will face many challenges.
Because what you see from the skyscrapers in Doha, you do not see from the tin huts of the refugee camps in the Gaza Strip.