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Written by: Commentary Editing Room
2020-09-10 07:00
Last update date: 2020-09-10 07:00
The Chief Executive Carrie Lam will announce the "Policy Address" next month and will listen to the recommendations of the Innovation and Strategic Development Advisory Panel on Tuesday (8th).
Following Carrie Lam’s earlier statement that there will not be too many measures to use public finances, members of the advisory group also said that although they agree that the government’s relief measures are indispensable, they understand the challenges this will bring to public finances.
However, it can be seen from various data that the current public finances of the Hong Kong government are not only stable, but it can also be considered to have a lot of capital to make good use of public funds to ease the structural contradictions in society. Therefore, if the government still holds the view of keeping money in the "policy address", It will waste the opportunity to reform and revitalize the economy, and lose too much.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has hit Hong Kong's economy. Although the government has launched two rounds of anti-epidemic funds in recent months, economic downside risks still exist and the unemployment rate has not yet peaked. Therefore, many people are looking forward to more relief measures from the government.
However, in addition to the opinions of the above-mentioned innovation and strategic development advisory group, officials such as Chief Executive Carrie Lam and Financial Secretary Chen Maobo have expressed concern about the huge budget deficits in exchange for relief measures and believe that the Hong Kong government must reserve Sufficient reserves to meet potential challenges.
According to the blog of Chief Secretary for Administration Zhang Jianzong, the government has launched two rounds of anti-epidemic funds and budget relief measures. A total of more than 280 billion Hong Kong dollars has been invested. It is expected that historical records will be recorded this fiscal year. The highest deficit.
Although the amount of money far exceeds the relief measures during the SARS and financial tsunami crises, the challenge of the new crown pneumonia is a once-in-a-century experience. The government has used public funds to relieve the people’s hardship and broke the previous fiscal deficit record. "Means."
However, the criteria for how to use the warehouse resources in the future is not about the historical costs already spent, but the amount of resources available to the authorities, the depth of the economic downturn, and the expected timeliness of relief measures.
Lam Cheng said that the content of the new policy address cannot be disclosed at the moment, but he pointed out that Hong Kong’s public finances have already experienced a very severe situation, so she has to manage everyone’s expectations now. There will be no more in the new policy address. New measures to use public finances.
(Photo by Yu Junliang)
Hong Kong has less debt and more reserves
Comparing Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany, Hong Kong’s public finances are undoubtedly worthy of the pride of the public.
According to statistics from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, in the past 30 years, Hong Kong’s per capita fiscal reserves have surged from US$4,322 in 1990 to US$58,788 last year, an increase of 1260%. The fiscal reserves of the above-mentioned four countries over the same period are only available to Singapore. On the other hand, the US, Britain, and Germany's growth rate was only 104% to 244%.
Other statistics also show that Hong Kong's public finances are stable.
Regarding the ratio of fiscal revenue and expenditure to the gross national product, the Hong Kong government’s fiscal deficit during the statistical period has not yet tried to exceed 5% of GDP. In contrast, the United Kingdom and the United States have not only suffered deficits for many years, but also have a precedent of breaking 10%.
It is worth mentioning that although Hong Kong and the Lion City are both stable in terms of fiscal reserves and fiscal revenue and expenditure ratios, the latter’s government debt accounts for more than 100% of its GDP and leads Hong Kong’s 7%. The robustness is indeed better than the other four countries.
Since our financial capabilities are not stretched yet, why are senior officials still tightening their pants at critical junctures and constantly emphasizing the importance of public financial discipline?
The principle of "live within your means" stipulated in the Basic Law is not only worth re-examining. When the economy is down, the fear that the warehouse will not make enough money will not only hinder economic recovery, but also create a vicious circle that will not help Hong Kong recover after the epidemic. , It is also difficult to clear the existing social problems, such as the serious shortage of elderly services, the over-reliance of the economy on the four pillar industries, etc. All these require government intervention and promote reform and transformation.
Furthermore, with the dawn of the global vaccine development project, the time limit of relief measures by governments of various countries mostly ends before and after the full resumption of economic activities. Not only is it difficult to become a constant government expenditure, it will not bring down Hong Kong’s economy. public finance.
Therefore, the authorities, under the attack of the new crown pneumonia and the economic downturn, must not embrace the historical concept of keeping money.
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