Is a single motorcycle meeting responsible for more than 250,000 new corona infections?
A US study comes to this conclusion.
After a
motorcycle meeting
, the
new corona infection rate
in the USA has skyrocketed.
Four scientists therefore classify the biker meeting as a
superspreader event
.
Now the study by the
University of San Diego is
hotly debated.
Sturgis (South Dakota) / USA - There is currently a
dispute
in the US media about a
Corona *
superspreader study
.
Their results were: This year's
biker meeting
in the small US town of
Sturgis
in the state of
South Dakota
attracted more than 450,000
participants from all over the country
who took the
mask requirement
and
distance
- and probably
250,000
new infections * with Sars-CoV-2 * .
The study's authors are four
US economists
who also put a price tag on the consequences they extrapolated: new healthcare costs of more than
twelve billion dollars
.
The study, entitled
"The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and Covid-19"
, was carried out at the
Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies (CHEPS) at
the
University of San Diego
.
Among others, Dhaval Dave, Andrew I. Friedson, Drew McNichols and
Joseph J. Sabia
evaluated
anonymized
mobile phone data of
the participating motorcyclists.
The motorcycle meeting took place from August 7 to 16 - the city administration of Sturgis had approved it despite concerns about major events in the corona pandemic *.
The increase now estimated by the study corresponds to around
19 percent of
all corona cases reported in the USA between August 2 and September 2.
Coronavirus in the USA: Biker meeting identified as a superspreader event
“Given the total cost, you could have paid each of the 462,182 visitors $
26,553
to not attend,” the
Washington Post
drew
from the
Study.
Immediately there was opposition.
Kristi Noem, Republican
governor of South Dakota
and supporter of US President Donald Trump *, told
Fox
that the study was based on completely wrong numbers.
The technology magazine
Wired,
however, pointed out that the authors are economists, not
virologists
: "There was a lot of
math
at work here." This is not a reproach to the study authors - but the study shows that the US authorities urgently need a better one
Need
to collect
data
on the pandemic.
Superspreader event motorcycle meeting: number of corona tests, infection rate, number of unreported cases
In the observed number of cases alone is not reliable, according to the report further, as will strictly gehaushaltet with corona tests in the US and the
underreporting
of infections could be higher by five to ten times.
According to
data expert Rex Douglas
from the University of San Diego, the
number of cases is
at best good enough to show a
“trend”
.
"The conclusion that the biker meeting in Sturgis was a
superspreader event
is certainly correct - it would be shocking if not - but the
methodology of
the study does not reveal anything about its
severity
," Douglas told
Wired
.
This is by no means an argument for corona deniers.
"We cannot observe what would have happened if the biker meeting in Sturgis had not happened," said study co-author Joseph Sabia to the magazine about the investigation.
* Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital editorial network.