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Elections in the United States and Latin America (Opinion)

2020-09-17T17:07:57.002Z


After being vice president of Barack Obama and with foreign policy responsibilities, Biden is someone with experience in Latin America


Credit: Drew Angerer / Getty Images

Editor's Note: 

Jorge G. Castañeda is a contributor to CNN.

He was Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico.

He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book is "America Through Foreign Eyes", published by Oxford University Press.

The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author.

See more opinions at cnne.com/opinion

(CNN) -

Before every election in the United States, specialists in American issues from all countries of the world initiate thoughtful and intense speculation about the impact that this or that result will have on this or that nation.

Will the new president's policy on Eastern Europe change?

Will the acting president keep his stance on Southeast Asia?

2020 is not an exception nor should it be.

Nor is Latin America.

Hence, a topic of interest and debate in several countries in the region today is what could constitute Joe Biden's “new” policy - if he wins - against the Western Hemisphere, at least south of the Rio Grande.

Here is a small contribution to the conversation.

Two clarifications to begin with.

First, having served as Barack Obama's vice president for eight years and with various foreign policy responsibilities, Biden is someone with experience in Latin America.

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He was closely involved in migration issues in the Northern Triangle and business in Mexico, and closely followed Washington's rapprochement with Havana.

Secondly, the difference between two areas is increasingly clear: from the Panama Canal to the north, including the Caribbean, and South America.

To the north, the relationship with the United States is paramount;

to the south, primary goods exporting economies are increasingly linked with other countries, mainly China.

US policy toward the region is actually divided into two: toward Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, on the one hand, and toward the countries south of Darien, on the other.

Faced with the northern half of Latin America, Biden has the opportunity to greatly change the position of his country.

The main issue is obviously immigration.

Simply by returning to the status quo ante, that is, to the Obama era, the transformation would be enormous.

Of course, we must remember that Obama also deported many people.

Eliminate the “Remain in Mexico”, (that is, the deportation of Central Americans to Mexico while they wait for a hypothetical hearing for asylum or family unification);

restore the validity of asylum for well-founded reasons, including domestic violence;

suspend the separation of families;

repeal the de facto or de jure agreements of the Third Safe Country with El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico;

no longer deport undocumented immigrants without criminal records from the interior of the country: all these measures can be implemented by Biden's team, from day one, and by decree.

However, comprehensive immigration reform remains pending, because the decrees do not provide the same long-term protection as a law passed by Congress.

The same is true of the reversals that Trump promoted in relation to Obama's policy towards Cuba.

Removing the embargo and the so-called Helms-Burton Act requires the approval of Congress.

But making travel easier, sending remittances, permits for US companies to settle in Cuba, etc., can also be done by decree.

On both issues - immigration and Cuba - Biden is likely to proceed quickly and without major internal difficulties.

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In South America there will be more continuity, in part because Trump hasn't done much, and Biden lacks the incentive to launch big initiatives.

The search for free trade agreements with Brazil does not appear to be on the horizon (Kamala Harris, her running mate, voted against the ratification of the new agreement with Mexico and Canada), nor closer cooperation on pandemics, corruption or legalization of some drugs.

Certainly certain personal affinities will change - for example, Trump's closeness to the president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, and his children will vanish with Biden - and certain animosities may be tempered with the Peronist government of Argentina and with a new president in Bolivia if Luis Arce -of the MAS of Evo Morales- will win in the elections scheduled for October 18.

Where profound mutations can occur in Biden's approach to South America is with regard to Venezuela.

Chavismo has survived four presidencies in Washington: Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump.

The degree of hostility from each of them has varied, but the tensions between the two countries have been constant.

Trump actively sought the departure of Nicolás Maduro and has failed.

The legislative elections scheduled for December, if held, will solve nothing.

The sanctions imposed by Trump, his threats and his tacit support for all kinds of plots against the Caracas dictatorship have not contributed to a democratic solution to one of the most serious humanitarian crises in Latin America in decades.

It is obvious that the Venezuelan tragedy does not contain the possibility of a purely internal solution.

Various governments and personalities from other countries have tried to find a negotiated, democratic and viable solution.

They haven't found it.

Biden would have a choice.

Faced with the catastrophe that is hitting the Cuban economy, he could propose an agreement to President Miguel Díaz-Canel: to normalize relations to the point they had reached during the Obama administration, but within the framework of authentic Cuban cooperation in the crisis in Venezuela.

The magnitude of Havana's influence in Caracas is no secret to anyone;

Instead of only aiming to perpetuate Chavismo in power, it should be directed towards a restoration of democracy in Venezuela, the end of the famine and the exile of millions of inhabitants, and a reconciliation of all in exchange for retaking the diplomatic route that Obama had plotted with the Island.

Finally, after the unfortunate election of the Cuban-American Maurico Claver-Carone as president of the Inter-American Development Bank, perhaps Biden could remove him one way or another, to compensate the damage that his appointment has done to the region. as a whole, including the countries that voted for him.

Will Biden do everything we summarize here quickly?

It is not impossible, it is not that difficult.

If you win by a large margin, you will have the political capital and the mandate to proceed in this way.

Only the will is lacking.

Donald TrumpJoe Biden

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2020-09-17

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