The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg less than two months before the presidential election is a major political coup amid a particularly contested campaign.
The dean of the Supreme Court knew she was doomed by cancer.
She was more aware than anyone of the capital stake represented by her succession.
A few days before his death, Ginsburg had dictated to his granddaughter this declaration:
"My most fervent wish is not to be replaced before the assumption of office of a new president".
On Saturday morning, current President Donald Trump hinted on Twitter exactly the opposite:
“We were placed in this position to make important decisions for the people who so proudly elected us.
The most important for a long time has been the selection of judges to the Supreme Court.
We have this obligation, without delay!
"
The sudden vacancy of Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat offers Trump the opportunity to appoint a conservative Supreme Court justice.
During a rally in Minnesota on Friday evening, before apparently learning of Ginsburg's death, Donald Trump had already announced his intention to appoint a conservative judge if the possibility arose, and pronounced the name of Senator Ted Cruz.
He had, in recent weeks, published lists of potential candidates.
After hearing of Ginsburg's death from reporters following his speech, Trump spontaneously paid tribute to the judge.
"She just died?"
Wow!
I didn't know.
She's had an amazing life.
She was an amazing woman, whether we agreed with her or not.
I'm really sorry to hear about it ”.
But politics quickly won out over condolences.
The debate has already started: can and should Ginsburg's replacement be appointed before the presidential election?
In 2016, the Republican-majority Senate had caused a 14-month vacancy in the Supreme Court by refusing to consider the appointment of Merrick Garland, appointed by Obama to replace conservative judge Antonin Scalia.
At the time, Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, justified this blocking by explaining that during an election year it was advisable to wait for the election of a new president before appointing anyone to this post.
The Republicans then invoked a speech to this effect delivered in 1992 by Senator Joe Biden to refuse the appointment of a judge by George HW Bush.
A few months later, Trump won the presidency and appointed Conservative Judge Neil Gorsuch.
The two parties are now on reversed fronts: the Democrats now want to wait for the election.
Republicans suddenly find it appropriate to speed things up.
The two parties are now on reversed fronts: the Democrats now want to wait for the election.
Republicans suddenly find it appropriate to speed things up.
"Voters must choose the president and the president must choose the candidate for the Court before presenting him to the Senate,"
said Democratic candidate Joe Biden, citing Republican jurisprudence:
"This is the position taken the Republican Senate in 2016 when there were almost ten months left before the election.
This is the position the Senate must take today when there are only forty-six days left ”.
Democratic Senator Chris Coons meanwhile called for patience:
"With all the challenges our country faces, this is a time when we should come together rather than let ourselves be further divided by a rushed confirmation process. ".
But as early as Friday, Mitch McConnell announced that if President Trump nominated a candidate,
"the Senate would vote."
“Americans renewed our majority in 2016 and 2018 because we are committed to supporting President Trump and his platform, especially with regard to his extraordinary appointments to federal courts.
Once again, we will keep our promise, ”
McConnell said.
Since becoming Senate Majority Leader in 2015, one of Mitch McConnell's main activities has been securing approval for the federal court appointments of over 200 Conservative judges.
An appointment to the Supreme Court is an even more important issue for the influential senator.
The two Conservative judges appointed by Trump, Neil Gorsuch, 53, and Brett Kavanaugh, 55, are relatively young and their potential tenures could last for decades.
A third appointment would ensure the long-term dominance of the Conservatives over an institution that is the keystone of the American legal system.
The Supreme Court can also play a vital role in the event of a contested presidential election, as it did in 2000, when judges stopped the vote count in Florida, awarding the victory to George W Bush over his rival. Democrat Al Gore.
The question remains whether McConnell and Trump will attempt to force a nomination through before the November 3 election, or during the transition period, until January 20, 2021, when the next president will be sworn in.
Republicans hold a 53-seat majority in the Senate, and only need 51 votes to confirm a Judge once he's officially appointed.
Two Republican Senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, have previously said there is not enough time to confirm someone until November.
Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham might also prefer to wait.
If the Senate is split with 50 votes on both sides, Vice President Mike Pence could be called upon to decide.
The stake is likely to make the presidential campaign even more bitterly fought.
Before Ginsburg's death, the Supreme Court had five judges appointed by a Republican president against four by a Democrat.
If Trump succeeds in appointing another judge, the balance would tip even more sharply towards the Conservatives.
One of the favorite candidates is Amy Coney Barrett, 48, a devout Catholic and anti-abortionist, who has the Liberals fearing a possible revocation of the Roe vs. Wade ruling that legalized abortion in the United States in 1973. .