By Mark Murray - NBC News
WASHINGTON - After a month of political conventions, new controversies, more protests and more deaths from the coronavirus, the 2020 presidential race remains where it has been for months, with Joe Biden overtaking President Trump nationally by almost double digits and with a majority of voters opposing the president.
Those are the results of a new national poll by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, which puts Biden ahead by 8 points among registered voters, 51% versus 43%, with more than 50% of voters disapproving of the Trump's job.
The president maintains an advantage in economic matters and Biden over the coronavirus pandemic.
In addition, the survey reveals that about 90% of voters have made a firm decision and that seven out of 10 believe that the upcoming debates are not so important in deciding their vote.
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"So far, despite the great upheavals in the country, little has changed," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this poll with Republican Bill McInturff.
"In 2020, the foundations of our country have been shaken to the core, while the foundations of the elections have not," added Horwitt.
Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden smiles at supporters during a campaign event at Saint Augustine University in Raleigh, North Carolina, on February 29, 2020. Gerry Broome / AP file
Still,
the poll reveals that 11% of all voters are still in the game
, a figure greater than Biden's electoral advantage over Trump.
And Trump's numbers have risen bit by bit in the poll since the summer, while Biden's favorable rating has also improved in the last month.
"Trump's summer swoon is over," said McInturff, a Republican pollster.
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The NBC News and WSJ poll, conducted Sept. 13-16, comes after a turbulent and news-packed month, including the Democratic and Republican conventions, the Jacob Blake police shooting in Wisconsin, the sum of 30,000 more deaths. over the coronavirus,
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But the poll was conducted before the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18.
According to the poll, Biden leads Trump, 51% to 43%, among registered voters, essentially unchanged from Biden's 9-point lead last month, 50% to 41%.
6% say they are undecided or support another candidate.
Biden's biggest advantages in the poll are among black voters (he gets 90% support vs. Trump's 5%), voters ages 18-34 (60% to 31%), women (57% to 37 %), whites with college degrees (54% to 41%), independent (45% to 39%), and seniors (50% to 46%).
Trump, meanwhile, has the upper hand among all white voters (52% to 43%), men (50% to 45%), and whites without college degrees (59% to 36%).
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And in the 12 decisive states combined (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Biden is ahead of Trump by 6 points, at 51%. versus 45%.
The vote at stake
Nearly 50% of all registered voters in the poll said there is no chance they will support Trump in the election, while
about 40% of voters say the same about Biden.
That leaves, according to pollsters from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, 11% of voters who appear to be at stake between the two candidates.
Supporters of President Trump during a visit by Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden to a union training center in Hermantown, Minnesota on Friday, Sept. 18, 2020.AP Photo / Carolyn Kaster
These voters at stake have mostly negative views of both Trump and Biden, with their 2020 preference split between Trump (27%), Biden (20%), none (27%), and unsure (24%) .
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"This doesn't seem like a group that Trump can campaign for, which he needs to turn things around," explained Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Similarly, a combined 71% of voters say the upcoming presidential debates, which begin on September 29, are not important or somewhat important in deciding their vote in the presidential race.
Only 29% say that the debates are "extremely" or "quite" important.
Improved numbers for both Trump and Biden
The NBC News and WSJ poll also shows slightly improved numbers for President Trump and Biden.
45% of voters approve of Trump's work, compared with 42% in July and 44% in August, although that change is within the poll's margin of error.
53% disapprove of the president's work, which has not changed from last month.
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But only 40% approve of Trump's handling of the pandemic, while 57% disapprove, also essentially unchanged from August.
Meanwhile, Biden's favoritism has risen from 39% positive, 45% negative (-6) last month, to 43% positive, 45% negative (-2).
That compares with Trump's current rating of 4% positive, 52% negative (-11).
Last month's figures for the president were 40% positive, 52% negative (-12).
Vice President Mike Pence has a rating of 38% positive, 44% negative (-6), and his fellow Democrat Kamala Harris's rating is 37% positive, 38% negative (-1).
Trump continues to lead the economy and Biden has the advantage over the coronavirus
On other issues, Trump outscores Biden by 10 points on which candidate would best run the economy, with 48% of voters choosing the president versus 38% choosing Biden.
Trump's advantage is 16 points to secure the border and control immigration (49% versus 33%) and 9 points to deal with China (46% versus 37%).
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However, Biden leads healthcare (53% to 31%), management of the coronavirus pandemic (51% to 29%), race relations (52% to 28%), protection of immigrant rights (57% to 25%) and climate change (58% to 19%).
And in personal characteristics, the survey shows that Biden has the support and respect for the military and veterans (47% to 42%), has a better evaluation in his performance as commander in chief (49% to 41%), is honest and trustworthy (47% to 30%) and has greater confidence in their ability to unite the country (52% to 28%).
Voters are essentially divided on which candidate has the mental and physical health necessary to be president: 41% say Trump is better over 38% who choose Biden.
Electoral interest is higher than ever
80% of voters say they have a high level of interest, registering a “9” or a “10” on a 10-point scale over the November elections.
That is the highest percentage on this question dating back to the 2004 elections, suggesting that there will be a very high turnout.
And there is no difference by party in electoral interest, with 83% of Democrats and 83% matched with high interest.
Most voters plan to vote early
Finally, a combined 52% of voters say they will vote early, either by mail, by early voting in person, or have already voted.
Three in four voters planning to mail their ballots support Biden
The 42% who plan to vote at polling stations in elections.
A sharp political divide is revealed here, with 67% of Democrats voting early, compared to just 36% of Republicans.
The NBC News and The Wall Street Journal poll was conducted Sept. 13-16 of 1,000 registered voters, more than half of whom were contacted by cell phone, and the overall margin of error is plus minus 3.1 points. percentage.