Corona concern in Germany: Seven signs for the second wave - "Now it's really coming"

The so-called second corona wave is often discussed.

Is Germany heading exactly towards this point at the moment?

The signs are thickening.

• The Corona numbers * in Europe had recently increased - including in Germany.

• So is the second wave now threatening?

• There are already indications that suggest a further increase in the number of infections.

Munich - When

and

seemed to get

the

under control, virologists warned of a

.

In autumn, when the temperatures drop and the cold and flu season starts, an increase can be expected, it was said at the time.

The phase of the year has not yet been fully reached - the number of cases is still increasing.

Corona in Germany: Case numbers are increasing all over Europe - the Federal Republic is in good shape

Whether in Spain, France, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary or Great Britain - in many places the

recently soared.

reacted promptly and extended its travel warnings to include Vienna and Prague.

In Germany itself the situation is less precarious than in large parts of Europe, as a look at the 14-day incidences of the WHO shows (see info box).

September values ​​around the new 1,500 infection reports per day still cause concern.

If you compare the current data with those from two months ago, when fewer than 500 new cases were constantly added, it becomes clear that significantly more people are infected with 

.

14-day incidence in European countries (source: WHO, as of September 20)

1. Andorra

: 452 cases per 100,000 population

2. Montenegro

: 400

3. Spain

: 243

4. Czech Republic

: 192

5. France

: 191

14. Austria

: 100

32. Italy

: 33

37.Sweden

: 27

39. Germany

: 26

Corona in Germany: seven signs of the second wave

So is

the feared

getting closer and closer?

The

journalist Olaf Gersemann dealt with exactly this question on Twitter.

He sees good reasons for a worsening of the corona situation and writes: "Now the second wave is really coming." The following evidence supports this thesis:

• 1. The 7-day average

  : the weekly average in Germany is currently 1,712 cases.

  If you include the reproductive number * with the current value of 1.27, there could be almost 7,000 new infections per day within four weeks.

  Incidentally, the maximum number of new corona cases measured was 6,294 on March 28.

+

The R value is currently 1.27 (as of September 19). This means that 100 corona patients infect 127 people.

© Screenshot RKI management report

Corona in Germany: Only ten districts are currently corona-free

• 2. Few hotspots

  : According to the RKI Corona dashboard, there are currently (as of September 20) only three of a total of 401 German urban and rural districts in which the critical mark of 50 has been exceeded in terms of the seven-day incidence *:

  District of Cloppenburg

  (57.3),

  City of Würzburg

  (55.4),

  City of Munich

  (50.4).

  This fact can be seen as positive, but it is also an indication that the virus is spreading again across the country.

  Evidence: In the past seven days, no cases were transmitted from ten circles; on June 16 there were still 139 corona-free circles.

• 3. Overburdened offices

  : Can the health authorities cope with the high burden of the increasing number of infections?

  RKI boss Lothar Wieler

  said in the spring that the number of new infections had to stay in the three-digit range so that the authorities can track the cases and interrupt chains of infection.

  Gersemann therefore suspects "that many health authorities are again overwhelmed."

8/20

... but the 7-day average of the new cases has been> 1000 for 38 days.

Even if hardly anything has been read about it so far: It can be assumed that many local health authorities are again overwhelmed and have lost control of the chains of infection.

- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) September 20, 2020

Corona in Germany: is the second wave coming?

Current dynamics worrying

• 4. Where is the clear cause?

  There have already been two major

  corona highs

  in the past

  .

  After the Tönnies scandal and at the time of the return trip phenomenon, there was a significant increase in the number of cases.

  This time, however, there is no clear reason for the current growth.

  Because “numerous

  Covid-19-related

  outbreaks

  continue to occur nationwide

  in different settings,” as the RKI * says.

  The

  virus

  is active almost everywhere.

• 5. Current dynamics

  : The

  seven-day average of

  the new

  corona cases

  is 27 percent higher than the previous week, the number of active cases is 19 percent higher than a week ago.

  The trend in both cases: further increasing.

  It is unclear whether and when this dynamic will flatten.

+

On the right edge of the graph it can be clearly seen that the seven-day incidence has recently increased rapidly.

© Screenshot RKI management report

Corona in Germany: Autumn is imminent - is this increasing the number of infections?

• Autumn 6

  : As described above, the classic

  flu season is

  still ahead.

  Is it to be feared that higher

  corona cases will

  then also

  arise?

  Unclear - but possible, since the time of increased stay in closed rooms is still ahead.

• 7. Negative example Spain

  : In

  Germany

  and many other countries the case mortality has fallen drastically.

  It is currently not the case that mortality is rising in parallel with rising case numbers.

  There are various explanations for this, such as more targeted medical treatment or a higher proportion of younger infected people.

  But can these factors really explain the situation comprehensively?

  In

  Spain,

  for example, there has recently been another increase in mortality.

17/20

... but it is unclear whether they can really explain the decline in full.

Accordingly, one should not be too sure that there will not be another sharp increase in fatal cases.

This is already the case in Spain.

pic.twitter.com/hUT9RFAcPn

- Olaf Gersemann (@OlafGersemann) September 20, 2020

Corona in Germany: Conclusion - don't panic, but be careful

However, there are still good reasons to assume that the

does not occur or occurs in a weakened form.

For example, only 238 corona patients currently have to be ventilated (as of September 18).

The capacities are 6,800.

However, current developments must be carefully monitored and the measures adjusted if necessary - so that it only

remains

when there are signs of a

.

List of rubric lists: © Screenshot RKI situation report