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Trump could be happy too soon

2020-09-20T16:07:53.151Z


The US president wants to use the dispute over the succession of the late judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the election campaign. But is this topic really that helpful to him?


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US President Donald Trump wants to mobilize his base with the dispute over the successor to Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Photo: Evan Vucci / AP

The crocodile tears that Donald Trump and the Republicans shed over the death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg have already dried.

They see the vacant position primarily as a political gift and a great opportunity in the election campaign.

However, Trump and his people may be happy too soon.

For the President, the matter can also have some risks and incalculable side effects.

Basically, Trump initially has advantages.

There is, for example, the matter of the corona pandemic: The political battle to fill the vacancy at the Supreme Court is likely to become a dominant topic for the next few days and weeks.

Trump can hope that his mismanagement will at least temporarily move out of focus during the crisis.

You have to understand why there is such a fuss around the position of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Far more than the Federal Constitutional Court in Germany, the Supreme Court has a key political position in the USA.

In the highly polarized two-party system, there is little chance of compromise, and major disputes often end up in the court, which acts as the arbitrator.

Ginsburg was assigned to the left camp.

If Trump and his Republicans now fill another judge's post for life with a candidate of their own choosing, the conservatives may have a clear majority of six to three votes on the body for many years, with the referee switching to their side, so to speak.

A plus for Trump in women

The President proposes the candidate.

It is not yet certain when exactly the vote will then take place.

Whether it works before the election or afterwards.

Both would be possible, the Republicans are in charge with their majority in the Senate until a new Senate and a new President are sworn in in January.

Either way, the controversy over the election campaign can help Trump mobilize his own supporters.

Even vacillating Republican voters now have one more reason to vote and vote for Trump.

Even if they don't like the president, the prospect of ruling the Supreme Court is a tempting prospect for conservatives.

Important issues such as the dispute over abortion or gun ownership could be resolved permanently in the interests of the Republicans.

Another plus point for Trump: He can use the nomination for the position to attract other groups of voters to his side beyond his loyal base, for example moderate women.

Trump's announcement that he is likely to propose a woman should aim to improve his standing in this segment of the electorate.

Trump has had problems here in polls for months.

Suddenly the macho would appear in the White House as a promoter of women.

Trump could announce his decision as early as this week.

Several top conservative lawyers are on the shortlist, including

Amy Coney Barrett

and

Barbara Lagoa

.

The latter has Cuban family roots, which could make it even more interesting for Trump.

The president is fighting to secure states like Florida and Nevada in the election, which have a high proportion of voters from Central and South America.

If he were to nominate Lagoa, he could possibly score additional points here.

Loads of problems and risks

So far, so good for Trump.

But things can also go wrong for him.

The support mobilization that Republicans are hoping for works, of course, in both directions.

The typical American culture war between left and right, which will now flare up for the open judicial position, also helps Joe Biden and the Democrats to drive their voters to the polls.

Especially those supporters of the left, progressive wing of the party, who may have had their problems with the moderate Joe Biden up to now, are now given an additional reason to vote.

If they want to prevent a total takeover of the country's most important institutions by the Conservatives, they have no choice but to vote for Biden and his Democrats on November 3rd.

This is all the more true in the event that Trump and the Republicans push their candidate through before the election.

Then it would make sense for some voters to put the presidency and / or Congress in the hands of the Democrats as a political counterweight to a Conservative-ruled Supreme Court. America's voters have shown a sense of this in the past, the political weights to be somewhat balanced in the country.

Like Trump, Biden will also use the topic to get the voters on his side: His strategists are already planning to link central political issues with it.

For example, they want to argue that a conservative Supreme Court could abolish important social benefits in the health system that were introduced under President Barack Obama.

Another problem for Trump: It is not certain that he will really hold together his majority of 53 to 47 votes for the candidate in the Senate.

A good handful of moderate Republican senators like Susan Collins from Maine are up for re-election on November 3rd.

They fear that they will be punished by voters in their constituencies if they help Trump rule the Supreme Court.

You are therefore already showing the greatest reluctance on the subject.

In addition: Biden and his people can count on the fight for the position at the court in this election campaign not attaining the paramount importance that Trump may be hoping for.

The coronavirus continues to be the dominant issue in the US, the virus overshadowing the lives of many millions of voters.

A good 200,000 people have already died, and the number of victims will continue to grow by election day.

The question of Trump's responsibility in this crisis does not just go away overnight.

Just as little as the problems that many Americans have with Trump's character and his administration.

There is some evidence that a large majority of voters decided before Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death who they want to elect as president.

Trump may have already exhausted his voter potential, and his survey data has barely improved for months.

According to surveys, the number of undecided is only in the single-digit percentage range.

That means: the election will probably no longer change its actual character with or without a Supreme Court fight.

It is and will be a referendum on Donald Trump.

Icon: The mirror

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2020-09-20

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