Science is not alone in catching headaches from the unpredictability of Covid-19.
On the political front too, the pandemic thwarts the prognosis and drives analysts crazy.
In the early days of the crisis, the hard-leaning populist leaders (Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro) or "light" (Boris Johnson) quickly drank the cup.
Total denial in front of the dangerousness of the virus, erratic and even calamitous management of the situation, cookie-cutter and often contradictory statements ...
All this was shattered on the brutal law of the virus: 200,000 deaths recorded in the United States, nearly 140,000 in Brazil, the second most bereaved country on the planet.
In the United Kingdom, “Bojo” initially seemed to take the threat lightly before changing his mind as the wave swelled across the Channel.
Which also earned him several days of hospitalization in April.
PODCAST. Donald Trump and the coronavirus: awareness slowly (Part 1)
It was clearly no longer a "bad" or "little" flu, "as these populists too quickly called it.
Even for politicians who are masters in the art of playing with realities, the blow has been severe.
"Their propensity to distort the facts to serve their interests did not allow them to evade the statistics", underlines the political scientist Catherine Fieschi, director, in London, of Counterpoint, a research and consulting firm in geopolitics.
“During the acute phase of this very technical health crisis, the experts had their say, scientific reason.
Clearly not the favorite terrain of the tribunes of Washington, Brasilia and elsewhere, ”continues this specialist in populism.
"Chameleons capable of falling back on their feet"
The same now seem to raise their heads.
In Brazil in particular, where the "comeback" in the polls of President Bolsonaro, which had been believed to have been affected by the health crisis, was spectacular in August.
By what spell?
First under the effect of a natural law, which prevented them from loosening when everything was going badly: “When times get tough, opinions are generally united around their leader.
They are looking for a certain stability, ”analyzes Catherine Fieschi.
"We may have thought too quickly that the coronavirus was going to be an indicator of the incompetence of the populists in power," said Dominique Moïsi, special advisor to the Montaigne Institute.
But for populism as a political current, the continuation of the pandemic risks on the contrary reinforcing them: the economic crisis and social despair can sustainably feed it, ”continues the political scientist, who has taught at Harvard and ENA.
This can easily be understood for the populists of the opposition, when the unfortunately inevitable time comes for bankruptcies and plans to lay off workers.
It is clearly not yet that of Matteo Salvini, the leader of the far-right Lega in Italy, who was hoping for a shattering return to the forefront with the weekend's elections in Italy.
Missed for this time.
The test of the American election
More surprisingly, the hardening economic climate may prove positive for those in the driver's seat.
As Catherine Fieschi puts it, “the populists, as long as they are talented, are chameleons, able to always fall back on their feet.
They can use any crisis to create a wedge with
others
”.
Trump, put in difficulty, thus pointed an accusing finger at the “Chinese virus”.
Johnson decided a few days ago to toughen up the tone with the European Union.
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PODCAST. Donald Trump and the coronavirus: awareness slowly (Part 2)
The populists are fully playing what makes their success: the polarization of opinions.
This is the bet attempted and visibly successful by Trump, whose electorate supports nearly 90% of his management of the pandemic.
“Once again, the populist leaders show their ability to galvanize their troops, to rely on their hard core, observes Dominique Moïsi.
Faced with them, the oppositions find it difficult to stand united.
"
VIDEO. Donald Trump masked, a first in three months of health crisis
The US election on November 3 will undoubtedly be a crucial test for the resistance of the populists to Covid.
Good point for the billionaire: unemployment is back below 10%, and the economy is picking up.
If the epidemic remains the major stake of the poll, then Trump has to worry, according to the two experts.
"In a rational world, his catastrophic management of the epidemic would immediately disqualify him," sighs Catherine Fieschi.
“If the economy dominates in November, then Trump has his chances,” Moïsi continues.
So who is voting for the Covid?
"I think he's neutral," Moïsi smiles.
