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Edel Rodriguez / DER SPIEGEL
Today we are concerned with the political consequences of the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and discuss a paradox: the Republicans could lose the election and cement their power at the same time.
When I was in Kenosha a few weeks ago to report on the riots after the death of the young black Jacob Blake, I met Terrance Warthen there.
The African American is a community organizer, he educates members of minorities about the political system, he encourages them to run for office, he helps them register before the elections.
Warthen is a member of "Our Revolution", a movement founded by the left Senator Bernie Sanders.
I particularly remember one sentence from him: "So far, Joe Biden has not given me a reason to vote for him in November," he said.
I had to think of this sentence when, just hours after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the debate about filling her position at the Supreme Court broke out.
It is now clear that the Republicans have the majority necessary to have a candidate confirmed by the Senate.
Republicans violate their own standards
That is a clear breach of the standards that they themselves formulated four years ago.
Back then, Republicans didn't even listen to Barack Obama's candidate because, they argued at the time, it wasn't appropriate in an election year.
Trump's base is now electrified by the unexpected opportunity.
At his election events, the cry "Fill the Seat" sounds like: "Occupy the seat".
Suddenly the Supreme Court is the dominant issue of the election campaign, not the corona pandemic.
But the Republicans have also accomplished something that rarely succeeds.
You united the Democrats.
Joe Biden's party suddenly mobilized the idea that six of the nine judges in the Supreme Court could soon be assigned to the conservatives.
The democratic online platform ActBlue collected 91.4 million dollars in donations within 28 hours after the death of Bader Ginsburg became known - a record.
Trump unites the Democrats
The party's wings are unanimous in opposing Trump's plan.
Biden may not have given leftists like Terrance Warthen a reason to vote for him.
Trump has now done that for him.
There are still no reliable figures on how recent events have affected political sentiment, but there are indications.
According to surveys, around half of American voters believe that the winner of the presidential election should settle the successor to Bader Ginsburg.
Only 37 percent of those surveyed were of the opinion that Trump should do this beforehand.
In addition, the Supreme Court issue seems to have a higher priority with the Democrats.
In a poll of the Marquette University Law School shortly before Bader Ginsburg's death, 56 percent of Democratic voters said their next appointment was "very important."
Among the Republicans it was only 48 percent.
The Democrats are also more likely to benefit from the issues involved in appointing a conservative judge.
For the Christian right, abortion is the most important issue when choosing.
But their majority votes for Trump anyway.
Will the courted voters in the suburbs also vote for him so that the right to abortion is restricted?
That seems rather questionable.
The Supreme Court will soon decide on Barack Obama's health care reform
There are issues that are more important.
At his events, Biden points out that if there is a right-wing majority in the Supreme Court, health insurance for millions of citizens is at risk.
He's right.
The court will soon decide whether key parts of Barack Obama's health care reform are constitutional.
In times of the corona pandemic, this is more crucial than the question of abortion for many Americans.
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Joe Biden has a good chance for the presidency
Photo: MARK MAKELA / REUTERS
There are indications that the Democrats could benefit from the dispute over the appointment of the judge.
This applies not only to the presidential election, but also to the numerous senatorial posts that are being fought for.
This could lead to a bizarre scenario after the election: Joe Biden becomes president and the Democrats have a majority in both houses of Congress.
Still, Trump and the Republicans are deciding what direction the country's Supreme Court will take for the foreseeable future.
A minority that was actually voted out could then influence the country's politics for decades.
Among the many faulty designs in American democracy, this is a particularly fatal one.
That's what the polls say
So far, all of Donald Trump's attempts to reduce Joe Biden's lead have not paid off.
The latest poll from the University of Southern California, which polls the same voters over a long period of time, sees the top Democratic candidate nearly ten percentage points ahead of the president nationwide.
It is a value that has been largely constant for weeks.
The developments after Bader Ginsburg's death are not yet taken into account.
What will be important
On Saturday, around a week after Bader Ginsburg's death, Trump wants to name his candidate for her successor.
The favorite is Amy Coney Barrett, a devout Catholic and anti-abortionist.
The mother of seven is currently practicing in federal court in Chicago.
Opportunities are also given to Barbara Lagoa, who would be the first woman of Cuban descent to be appointed as chief judge.
It could secure Latin votes for Trump in the important swing state of Florida.
It is the third time in his tenure that Trumps is allowed to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court.
Whether he wins or loses the election, his legacy will keep the country busy for a long time to come.
Social media moment of the week
This time it's a ten-second Democratic election spot.
He shows Donald Trump saying the following sentences at an election rally: "If I lose to him, I don't know what I'll do. I will never speak to you again."
The usual closing credits follow: "I'm Joe Biden, and I support that statement."
Our US stories of the week
I would like to recommend these stories from the last few days to you:
My colleague Marc Pitzke portrays Ruth Bader Ginsburg: RIP, Notorious RBG.
The Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel speaks in an interview with Susanne Beyer about the complicity of the Democrats in the decline of the USA: tyranny of achievement
I wish you a nice week.
Stay healthy!
Heartily
Your Ralf Neukirch
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