Is there a white Christmas this year?
Now there are first forecasts about the first snowfall in the Federal Republic.
The weather in Germany is anything but autumnal at the moment.
When does winter come and with it the first snow?
Hope for a white Christmas dies last.
Munich -
Germany has
experienced an unusually warm autumn so far.
31 degrees like on Tuesday in
Freiburg
are more reminiscent of summer bathing weather than gray autumn dreariness.
On Thursday (September 17th) there was a small drop in temperature in the Federal Republic of Germany, but the dreary weather, which is often predestined for September, has not yet materialized - but how long will the summer last?
Weather in Germany: forecast for the first snow - is there a white Christmas?
The high heat should be a thing of the past with current weather forecasts by October at the latest.
Then, when the days get shorter and the temperatures milder,
Christmas is
getting closer and closer.
It is still more than three months until then, but the long-term model of the American weather service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has
already dared to make an initial forecast.
When does the first
snow come
?
Can we
look forward
to a white
Christmas
?
According to
NOAA
, winter 2020/21 will be way too warm - so far, almost normal.
On a national average, temperatures in December should not fall below freezing point at 1 to 2 degrees.
Does
this mean that
snow is
becoming a scarce commodity again?
Due to the phenomenon of the so-called Christmas jam, the chances of a white festival decrease due to the transported mild, moist air.
For this reason, the winters around the turn of the year were recently significantly warmer than decades ago.
In
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
,
Brandenburg
and
Berlin
, winter 2019/20 was even the warmest since weather records began in 1881.
Weather in Germany: Long-term model shows - less and less snow in Europe
According to
Wetter.com meteorologist Paul Heger,
climate change is
also
a significant factor
.
The polar regions are heating up much faster and the ice is melting, which in turn affects what is known as the polar vortex.
This large-scale low altitude usually ensures cold winters in
Germany
.
But
if
the polar vortex changes, the weather situation in
Europe will
shift
and
Germany
would have to reckon with "serious effects" on winter.
Reiner reports on a long-term model that predicts the frost days up to the year 2100.
According to this, there will be around 30 fewer frost days in Central Europe in 80 years than before.
Because this development is exponential, it can be assumed that there
will be less and less
snow
in
Germany
in the next few years
.
The illustration of the changing
polar vortex
can be seen in the following video.
Weather in Germany: White Christmas?
Snow probably only in January
But when will the first
snow come
?
According to Wetter.com, the chances of a white
Christmas are also
relatively
slim this year
.
Rather, the first snowfall is not expected until the new year.
January is traditionally the coldest month in
Germany
.
If the temperatures are continuously in the negative range, the country is colored white.
The calculation is simple.
Based on the long-term forecast, it remains to be seen to what extent the situation will develop in three months.
According to the weather service, a cold winter with permafrost could still be imminent due to the arctic polar air, even if it doesn't look like it at the moment.
This leaves at least a little hope for a white
Christmas
.
In Germany, a milky veil was recently observed in the sky.
There are devastating backgrounds behind the weather phenomenon.
(as)
List of rubric lists: © Fabian Stratenschulte / dpa