By Andrea López-Cruzado and Ronny Rojas
Almost nine months after the first case of COVID-19 was reported, on December 31, 2019, in the city of Wuhan, China, the question that many are asking is: how long will it take to have an effective vaccine that allows control the pandemic in the United States?
On September 15, the president, Donald Trump, said in a forum with voters broadcast on ABC: "We are very close to obtaining the vaccine."
"It could be three weeks, four weeks, but we think we have it," he said.
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Is the president right?
Our verdict is that, based on the information available, their claim lacks context and it is unlikely that a vaccine will be approved before the November 3 presidential election.
To begin with, we do not know if what Trump meant was that scientists would have an effective vaccine for the coronavirus within a maximum period of four weeks - that is, no later than October 15 - or if the pharmaceutical companies would start producing it in that term.
But just one day after Trump announced the vaccine for October, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, in English), Robert Redfield, explained to Congress that it could be ready in November or December, but its supply would be "very limited and would have to be prioritized."
He advanced so that it will not be available to the general population until "end of the second quarter or third quarter of 2021".
That means, at best, between June and September of next year.
This week, The Washington Post announced that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will tighten the requirements to approve an emergency vaccine against COVID-19, in an attempt to show transparency and build trust in the public.
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That will make it harder for any vaccine to get the green light before the presidential election.
On September 23, Trump questioned the FDA's decision, wondering, "Why would they have to extend the process?"
“We are seeing that, and that has to be approved by the White House.
We can approve it or not.
That sounds like a political move, ”Trump said.
Globally, 21,000 million dollars have been invested for the development of a vaccine
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17, 202001: 46
How is the development of vaccines going?
There are currently 52 vaccines in the world in human testing phases, according to The New York Times.
Only 11 are in phase three, the last and one step prior to approval;
and the United States is involved in four of them, which could give it priority access over other countries.
Moderna, a company that has not yet managed to launch any vaccine on the market, is the one that has received the most money from the Government: more than 2 billion dollars in exchange for 100 million doses.
The company said on September 17 that it does not expect to be able to determine the effectiveness of its vaccine until at least November.
The American pharmaceutical company Pfizer collaborates with the German BioNTech to develop a vaccine that would be applied in two doses.
They have been conducting tests in the United States and other countries since the end of July and the Government has placed an order for 100 million doses valued at 1.9 billion dollars.
Pfizer announced that it would seek to produce that amount, but globally, by the end of this year, and have more than 1.3 billion doses ready by the end of 2021.
The third is a joint effort by Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.
In May, the government announced a $ 1.2 billion investment in the project, with the aim of developing at least 300 million doses as early as October.
However, earlier this month, AstraZeneca stopped its global tests, including those it was running in the US, after a volunteer fell ill.
Testing resumed on September 12, in Great Britain and Brazil, but remains suspended in the United States.
The fourth vaccine is the one developed by the Johnson & Johnson company, which on Wednesday announced the start of phase 3 of its tests.
The company will recruit about 60,000 volunteers to test the vaccine in the United States and other countries.
The company, which has received an investment of 456 million from the Government, anticipates that it will have the first doses ready for an emergency authorization in early 2021. Contrary to the other three vaccines, Johnson & Johnson's will not need to remain frozen and could be enough in a single dose, which will facilitate the vaccination process.
The company has also received 1,000 million dollars from the Government in exchange for 100 million doses.
Trump contradicts the experts
Trump's optimism about the vaccine clashes with estimates from the government's top health experts.
On the same day that the CDC director said it won't be massively available until the second half of next year, the president said Refield was "confused."
“I think he made a mistake when he said that.
That is simply incorrect information, ”Trump said.
[This misleading data is being used to minimize the harm of COVID-19 in children]
In front of the press, the president insisted that the vaccine could be ready in October and will begin mass production immediately, referring to the Pfizer investigation.
The executive director of the pharmaceutical company, Albert Bourla, explained at the beginning of the month that the company believed that by the end of October they would only know "if the vaccine works or not."
Getty Images / Getty Images
For his part, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Sept. 17 that he still believes a safe and effective vaccine may be ready in November or December.
However, he stressed that the battle against the coronavirus will not be won only with the development of a vaccine, but that there must be sufficient willingness of the population to be vaccinated.
According to a Gallup poll released in August, one in three people in the United States would not accept a free, approved vaccine against COVID-19 if it were ready today.
On September 17, an investigation by Noticias Telemundo revealed that the world has spent $ 21 billion on the development of the vaccine.
The United States is the country that has invested the most money, and also the one that has insured the largest number of doses: 800 million.
Through Operation Warp Speed, the Trump Administration approved $ 10 billion to accelerate the development and manufacture of six vaccines from different companies.
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