Unexpected war of electoral polls: the last numbers in Nation, Province and City for 2021

Eduardo Paladini

09/27/2020 - 15:56

• Clarín.com

• Politics

A little more than 10 months before the legislative STEP that will open the 2021 electoral calendar, an unexpected war of

is focused these days in those elections.

accessed half a dozen studies with numbers for the Nation, Province and City of Buenos Aires.

They basically point to the fight between the Front of All and Together for Change, with the logic of the

that marked 2019.

Election polls released this month are consulting

,

,

,

 and

.

There is so much disparity in the data that it is difficult to draw a general conclusion.

President Mauricio Macri acknowledges the defeat against the formula of the Frente de Todos, on October 27, 2019. Photo Emmanuel Fernández.

In the firms that have been measuring these trends for a few months, there is a

, in line with the fall of almost all the parameters related to the management of Alberto Fernández.

The President, as this newspaper was telling, had his very high peak of popularity between the end of March and April, and since then he began a progressive and persistent decline.

Synopsis: a gap that widens

It is a consulting firm created in 2015 and directed by the political scientist

.

It measured for different political spaces and does a fortnightly monitoring, which also reaches private clients.

So far this year, it released three national electoral studies in

.

This last month it surveyed 1,674 cases, between 10 and 14, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

In order to compare, he has been repeating the question:

.

As Clarín announced, the gap in favor of the opposition was widening.

v 1.5

Election Scenario 2021 / Synopsis

Based on a national survey of 1,674 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

- In

, the Frente de Todos had 38.6% intention to vote against 46.3% of "another political force":

.

- In

, 36.8% of the FdT against 47.5% of "other force":

.

- In

, 35% of the FdT against 48.7% of "other force":

.

The undecided were growing, but little: from 15.1% in July to 16.3% in September.

Analogies: broad advantage of the FdT

She was

Cristina Kirchner's

and continues to work for that space.

This year, it was the firm that began to notice the good numbers of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta within the K voters and that input was used by the Frente de Todos to begin its offensive against the Buenos Aires head of government.

v 1.5

Electoral Scenario 2021 / Analogies

Based on a national survey of 2,962 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

Between September 4 and 5, he conducted a national survey of 2,962 cases, with a +/- 2% margin of error.

And he asked:

.

The advantage in favor of the ruling party in the responses was overwhelming.

1) "To the

of the Frente de Todos led by Alberto Fernández":

.

2) "To the

of Macri, Rodríguez Larreta and radicalism":

.

3) "To José Luis Espert": 4.6%.

4) "To a provincial or neighborhood party": 2%.

5) "To the left": 1.5%.

6) "Will vote blank": 4.1%.

7) "Don't know": 23.1%.

Analogies

also shows the results with different cuts.

And there, the

appears above its average among

(45.8%), those between

(49%) and those with less education, with only the

(48.2 %).

​

Together for Change

is stronger among

(22.9%), those between

(22.9%) and those with a

(26.3%).

Opinion: Nation, Province and City data

This consulting firm, a pioneer in online measurements and which has been forecasting for elections systematically since 2015, conducted a national survey of

, between September 9 and 17, with a margin of error of +/- 2.3%.

In addition to the

, he

of Buenos Aires. 

Opinaia asked:

.

v 1.5

Electoral Scenario 2021 / Opinaia

Based on a national survey of 1,800 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

National results:

one)

"

by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner":

2) "

of Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta":

.

3) "José Luis Espert Awakening Front": 5%.

4) "Peronism no K of Juan Schiaretti": 3%.

5) "Left Front of Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman": 3%.

6) "To none": 12%.

7) "Undecided": 25%.

Results in the province of Buenos Aires:

1) "

by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner":

.

2) "

of Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta":

.

3) "José Luis Espert Awakening Front": 4%.

4) "Left Front of Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman": 4%.

5) "Peronism no K of Juan Schiaretti": 1%.

6) "To none": 11%.

7) "Undecided": 21%.

Results in the city of Buenos Aires:

1) "

of Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta":

.

2) "

by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner":

.

3) "José Luis Espert Awakening Front": 5%.

4) "Left Front of Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman": 5%.

5) "Peronism no K of Juan Schiaretti": 2%.

6) "To none": 9%.

7) "Undecided": 21%.

Jorge Giacobbe: the majority want him to lose the FdT

He is one of the consultants that appears the most in the media and is often questioned from Kirchnerism.

This year, he was among the first to broadcast electoral numbers.

With a particular approach: he asks people if they want

.

To see the evolution, three surveys can be compared: in June, August and September, the latter of

surveyed between 15 and 17, with +/- 2% margin of error.

Similar to Synopsis, it shows a gap that is widening against the ruling party.

v 1.5

Electoral Scenario 2021 / Giacobbe

Based on a national survey of 2,500 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

June Results:

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I don't care": 18.9%.

August results:

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I don't care": 20.4%.

September results:

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I want the

the elections":

.

- "I don't care": 12.4%

In all cases, fill in the "ns / nc".

Hit: different line prevails than that of the President

It is a consulting firm created in 2007 and that works in Argentina and abroad.

Every month, she monitors public opinion that she sells to different clients.

One of them, in the country, is the governor of San Juan, the Peronist Sergio Uñac.

v 1.5

Electoral Scenario 2021 / Success

National survey of 3,307 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

Its latest survey includes

, surveyed between September 15 and 20 and with a +/- 1.7% margin of error.

Like Giacobbe, the electoral question is central to the ruling party.

.

They responded like this:

1) "Line

than Alberto Fernández":

.

2) "

line as Alberto Fernández":

.

3) "I don't know": 21.4%.

Reyes-Filadoro: K advantage in Province

It is a consultancy that at some point measured for Sergio Massa and that disseminates interesting studies in the province of Buenos Aires.

Between September 4 and 7, he surveyed

, with a +/- 3.5% margin of error.

"If the elections for Deputies and Senators for the Province of Buenos Aires were today, for which political space would you vote?"

, I ask.

As options, it was based on the six spaces that competed in the October presidential race.

The results:

v 1.5

Electoral scenario 2021 / Reyes-Filadoro

Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 800 cases.

September 2020. In%

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

1) In

.

2)

.

3) Front Awakening: 4%.

4) Federal Consensus: 3%.

5) Front Left: 1%.

6) Front NOS: 1%.

7) Other space: 3%.

8) Vote blank: 3%.

9) Don't know: 4%.

In the report, the consultant highlighted that "81% of those consulted chose between the two main forces, marking a

in the 2021 electoral scenario."

And that "in the case of JxC, the main support is found within the PBA (41%), while in the case of the FdT, its main electoral support would be in the third electoral section (65%)".