35% of Mexicans expelled from the labor market by the coronavirus have not yet returned

A saleswoman, in the Iztapalapa market, in Mexico City.PEDRO PARDO / AFP

More than a third of the workers expelled by the pandemic have not yet returned to the job market.

Of the 12 million Mexicans who left in April, 35% are still out of the

, according to the monthly survey published this Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

There are signs of recovery.

In August, 608,000 people rejoined the economically active population, workers who have a job or are looking for one, from 52.6 to 53.2 million.

However, the figures, which include both the formal and informal sectors, remain far from the pre-crisis scenario and point to a 'reopening effect' that deflates as the months go by.

With the Bank of Mexico forecasting a drop in GDP of up to 12.8% this year and the vaccine against covid-19 still to come, uncertainty remains about the speed of the comeback.

The Mexican government's fiscal response to the crisis has been one of the weakest in the region, according to the International Monetary Fund.

And the trend points to a slowdown in job creation.

In July, Inegi registered the return of 1.5 million workers, more than double the number in August, a sign that the reopening of the economy after the lockdown continues to bear fruit, but at a slower rate.

The monthly increase, moreover, leaves a bittersweet taste when compared to 2019. The workforce in August represented 55.1% of those over 15 years of age.

A year ago, this was 60.4%, that is, five points higher.

The impact of the crisis is even clearer when analyzed by gender.

While the participation of men has maintained a constant trend towards recovery and reached 72.8%, in the case of women it was 38.9%, slightly lower than in the previous two months and 5.7 points percentage less than a year ago.

This coincides with the beginning of the school year that children are following virtually from home, says Valeria Moy, director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), an analysis center.

"When you have to choose who gets the children, it is usually the woman and it is probably also a rational question: whoever earns the most money returns to work," says the economist.

The rebound in August is mainly due to the recovery of informal employment after the relaxation of containment measures.

From representing 31 million people before the pandemic, it plummeted to 20.7 million in April and then rose to 27.8 million in August, 55% of the employed population.

“In Mexico you cannot be without work for long because there is no protection network or unemployment insurance.

You have no choice but to go out and sell on the street, ”says Moy.

Although the recovery of formality is slower, it also offers a moderately optimistic outlook.

In August, 92,390 new jobs were created, according to data from the Mexican Institute of Social Security published in mid-September.

The information published this Monday connects with the optimism of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

The president said this weekend during a tour of the State of Veracruz that the country is "advancing and coming out of the hole in what has to do with the economy."

Despite the fact that the government has not presented an extraordinary package of measures to face the crisis, the authorities trust that the existing programs will allow 200,000 jobs to be recovered between August and September.

By sectors, the primary and construction have been the ones that have pulled the trailer during August.

Both report job levels similar to those of a year ago.

Agriculture, the one that recovers the most, employed 14.4% of the employed population, a significant increase compared to 12.1% in July and 13.3% a year ago.

On the other hand, commerce continues without raising its head and registers a reduction of 1.4 million jobs, from 10.7% to 9.3% in August.

It represents 59.3% of the employed population, 3.9 percentage points less than in July and slightly less than a year ago, when 60.9% had a job in this sector.

The poor state of tertiary activity, which includes restaurants and hotels, particularly affects the State of Quintana Roo, the country's main tourist economy with the Caribbean beaches as a great lure.

The entity registers 91.7% occupancy, the lowest rate in the country and five percentage points lower than a year ago.

There the resounding drop in international tourism has not allowed to save the summer season.

Although the strict confinement ended months ago, local governments have adopted measures to limit capacity and occupation of spaces to prevent outbreaks.

Regarding the length of the working day, a good indicator of the quality of employment, people who worked more than 35 hours a week accounted for 68.7% of the employed population, an increase of more than two points compared to July. Here too, the figures are still far from those of the same month of 2019, when the percentage was 73.8%, and present important differences according to sex. The lag is greater in the case of women: 56.2% had days of more than 35 hours, compared to 63.5% a year ago, a drop of 7.3 points. For men, the difference is 5.9 percentage points.