Friedrich Merz wants to become CDU boss
Photo: Peter Steffen / dpa
This Monday, CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the three applicants for her successor want to mark the timetable for the planned election party conference in early December (read more here).
North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Armin Laschet, ex-Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz and foreign policy specialist Norbert Röttgen are expected at the party headquarters in Berlin.
The decision on the future chairman is made by the delegates at the end.
But if the Germans had their way, Friedrich Merz would have been one step ahead - but without really convincing many people.
This is shown by a recent survey by the opinion research institute Civey for SPIEGEL.
Accordingly, around a quarter of Germans think Merz is most likely to take over the CDU chairmanship.
But Merz's lead is melting: In a survey at the end of February, it came to more than 37 percent.
His latest statements about homosexuality and the willingness to work of many people in a conversation with the "Bild" newspaper may have harmed him.
In second place follows with Jens Spahn (almost 18 percent) someone who does not even run for chairmanship himself, but instead acts as a team partner of Armin Laschets.
Time and again in the past there has been speculation about a change of leadership role within this team, but so far Spahn has rejected such considerations.
However, Laschet himself is still well behind the Federal Minister of Health with just under ten percent, and even competitor Röttgen receives a little more approval.
But: A not inconsiderable part of the general population is not convinced by the CDU's staffing capacity.
Almost 24 percent would like to have another candidate, around 12 percent are undecided.
Merz has lost even more sympathy in the camp of supporters of the CDU and CSU: In February around 63 percent argued for him, now it is only around 36 percent.
A little more than 20 percent of Union supporters favor Spahn, Röttgen and Laschet are also lagging behind here.
Noteworthy: The proportion of those who would like another candidate for the CDU chairmanship is also relatively large in the Union camp at around 18 percent.
The possible statistical error for the analysis according to party supporters is slightly higher than for the total population - for the Union supporters it is 3.6.
Whoever takes over the CDU chairmanship is automatically considered to be the first candidate for the Union's candidacy for chancellor.
In the opinion of the Germans, however, neither Merz, Laschet or Röttgen would have the best chances of inheriting Angela Merkel in the Chancellery - but Markus Söder.
More than 43 percent named the Bavarian Prime Minister.
Merz doesn't even get 16 percent on the K question, Spahn, Laschet and Röttgen land under ten percent.
Söder has a huge lead with the supporters of the Union: More than 60 percent believe that the sister parties would have the best chances with the CSU chairman in the federal election.
Merz remains just below 20 percent approval, the others are beaten.
In response to speculations about a candidate for chancellor, Söder has always stated that his place is in Bavaria.
There may be a decision at the candidate meeting with Kramp-Karrenbauer on Monday whether the three applicants will also compete in a TV debate.
Röttgen had already spoken out in favor of this several times.
Merz has not yet made a public commitment, Laschet is more against it, citing an earlier agreement.
Kramp-Karrenbauer has stressed several times that the fight for party leadership should be fair.
Icon: The mirror
as / dpa