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Dismantling the bureaucracy | Is it only a sign of the peaceful ending of the Panminite extension of the dispute? Analysis: Polarized supporters sound the alarm

2020-09-29T23:15:04.976Z

Whether the pro-democracy legislators will be extended or not is finally settled, but the "peaceful ending" may only be a superficial appearance. In fact, there are still many undercurrents hidden in the pan-democratic "undersea", and the crisis has not been eliminated. According to analysis, the proportion of 15 pan-democratic legislators in the polls who tend to go and stay is quite "polarized", each accounting for more than 40%. Mistakes may result in the loss of this batch of votes, which will directly affect the election of the Legislative Council a year later.



Political situation

Written by: Cheng Baosheng, Wu Zhuoan and Luo Jiaqing

2020-09-30 07:00

Last update date: 2020-09-30 07:00

Whether the pro-democracy legislators will be extended or not is finally settled, but the "peaceful ending" may only be a superficial appearance. In fact, there are still many undercurrents hidden in the pan-democratic "undersea", and the crisis has not been eliminated.

According to analysis, the proportion of 15 pan-democratic legislators in the polls who tend to go and stay is quite "polarized", each accounting for more than 40%. Mistakes may result in the loss of this batch of votes, which will directly affect the election of the Legislative Council a year later.

Remaining and leaving office are only half-half after announcing that there are protesters who are dissatisfied

The results of a poll released by the democrats yesterday (29th) showed that 47.1% of those who support retention and 43.9% oppose them. Both are less than half and close. This shows that among pan-democratic supporters, there are serious opinions about whether to stay Disagreement.

It can be seen from the outside reaction that Panmin will still face a crisis of secession in the future.

In addition to the establishment KOL instigating discord on the Internet, there are also protesters who expressed dissatisfaction. Some even denounced "a farce and a bunch of political cudgels." It can be seen that the split between the two factions has not been healed by the polls. At this moment, "surface peace" How long it can last is still unknown.

According to the data released at the press conference, 36.8% of all 2560 samples supported retention and 53.4% ​​opposed; and 738. Among the group of pro-democracy supporters, 47.1% support retention and 45.8% oppose it.

(Photo by Lu Yiming)

Although the public opinion is not unexpected, the danger alarm has not been lifted

Some winners of the primary election pointed out that the result reflects that there is not much change from public opinion two months ago. In addition, this time the democrats only consider the support of individual supporters. There is not much suspense about the pan-pop decision to stay in office. Counting the supporters of 15 parliamentarians, nearly half of the supporters do not support their decision to stay in office, believing that this is a dangerous alarm to the pan-people, or that they will lose the next election.

Some protesters bluntly stated that the current parliamentary system makes it difficult for the democrats to successfully block the "draconian law" in the parliament. "The National Security Law and the health code will not allow the Legislative Council to pass." All the bills are under the leadership of the establishment. "You can just blame them for not being radical." He also described that if the Panminists remain in office and the struggle fails, it will be harmless to the Panminions, and it will become a target and affect the election of the next election.

List of retained and non-retained members↓↓

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Or to get more support and become radical in the coming year

Scholars believe that in order to gain more support, the remaining democratic MPs have a chance to become more radical.

Ma Yue, an associate professor in the Department of Politics and Administration at the Chinese University of China, pointed out that if there are major controversial issues in the coming year, it will put pressure on the democratic members to stay.

He said that although the number of pan citizens is not enough to prevent the passage of draconian laws, radical supporters demand that they have a stronger response on controversial issues.

He anticipated that the MPs who originally planned to retire will have lower political energy in the coming year. On the contrary, the MPs who are fighting for re-election will be more motivated. He believes that they must take practical actions to confirm the value of staying in Parliament.

Cai Ziqiang said that the left-behind members should lobby and support the departed. Remaining in office is valuable, not betraying the supporters of the democratic camp.

(Profile picture)

Cai Ziqiang: The remaining congressmen must persuade and support the departed

Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Administration at CUHK, also believes that the posture and resistance of remaining members in parliament will become radical in the coming year.

He pointed out that the left-behind legislators should lobby and support the departed. Remaining in office is not to betray the supporters of the democratic camp, but to have value.

Cai Ziqiang also said that Zhu Kaidi, Chen Zhiquan, and Chen Shuzhuang will not be renewed. For bills that require two-thirds of all members to pass, such as DQ incumbent members, the bills may have an impact. He called on left-behind members to be careful and united.

He also said that there is a certain gap between the number of democrats and the establishment in other motions, and the focus is on how to fight the government and the establishment through different strategies.

Chen Shuzhuang's political stage is temporarily closed

Extension of Legislative Council | Lin Zhuoting: There are three important tasks to stay behind to build a platform for cooperation with the protesters

Legislative Council renewal│Professional political discussion 6 members stay in office: Continue to fight for justice and power through Parliament

Legislative Council renewal | Chen Zhiquan and Zhu Kaidi not renew: if there is no overwhelming result in the polls, the pan-democrats should boycott

However, there are also people who do not think that members of the democratic camp will change their style.

Former Democrats Legislative Council Member Ou Nuoxuan believes that as a politician, democratic legislators were willing to express their determination and commitment to the public, they would not use the polls to decide whether to stay, and the question of whether to stay would fall into a dead end. Think that politicians should take the initiative to change public opinion, rather than public opinion changing themselves.

He believes that the parliamentarians who were active in the parliamentary struggle in the past have left the parliament one after another. He believes that unless the deferred members change their personalities, it is hard to see them change their styles.

Breaking the predicament takes great effort to build a cooperative communication platform

In the coming year, the democrats will continue to be trapped inside and outside the parliament. How to break the predicament can be described as a lot of thought.

The Democratic Party Lin Zhuoting stated in the press conference yesterday that the winner of the primary election is authorized and representative of public opinion.

It is understood that Lin Zhuoting has initially contacted Liu Weikuang and others. When receiving enquiry, Liu Weikuang said that Lin Zhuoting has initially contacted him and hopes to meet with him and other primaries winners. He said that whether he can successfully build a platform depends on traditional pan-civilization and resistance. The attitude and attitude of the faction, but it means that the dominant power is in the hands of the people.

Legislative Council Legislative Council election 2020 democrats

Source: hk1

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