By Sahil Kapur - NBC News
It is unlikely that the first debate between the president, Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will change the opinion of the vast majority of the electorate, which has already decided who to support and assures that it will not influence them.
But the debate could still stir the contest and excite the electorate.
A marginal impact to persuade voters could have a profound influence on the outcome if elections are decided in a few key states.
And some experts say that presidential debates have been shown to solidify the impression of candidates in a way that does affect the behavior of voters.
[Everything you need to know about the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden amid the pandemic]
The debates could be Trump's last and best chance to shape the race.
But that will not be easy.
Biden has enjoyed an advantage in the polls since he became the Democratic Party nominee, and Trump's repeated attempts to gain ground have failed.
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"Presidential debates matter less than people think. Voters don't look to make a decision. They look to support their favorites," according to Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.
"After Kansas City won the Super Bowl, very few San Francisco fans thought, 'Wow, Kansas City played better, so I should have bet on them.'
[Trump insisted that he and Biden must take drug tests before the debate]
But the contest remains open in key states, such as Florida and North Carolina.
And some voters will be vigilant when making a final decision.
29% of Americans who participated in a recent NBC News and The Wall Street Journal poll said that debates are extremely important or very important to their votes.
The debate will feature two septuagenarians who are prone to verbally stumbling, and seeing them side by side could affect the perception of voters.
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"A debate could affect the outcome if any of the candidates showed serious signs of mental instability or cognitive impairment," Pitney said, "the keyword is 'severe.'
Occasional stutters in speech, stuttering or factual error are not enough, "according to Pitney," even Reagan's weak moments in the 1984 first debate with Mondale did not change the course of the presidential race.
I don't know what it would take, but it would be something we've never seen in the 60-year history of televised presidential debates. "
Historically, debates have been shown to allow a candidate to project an image, according to Barbara Perry, professor and director of presidential studies at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia.
Richard Nixon's "gruesome" performance in the first televised presidential debate in American history, in 1960, gave younger and less experienced candidate John F. Kennedy a boost, and may have helped him win by the popular vote of 0.17 percentage points, he pointed out.
The debate could offer Trump an opportunity to argue that perceptions of his first term are unfairly negative.
Trump's approval ratings in polls remain low, and voters often say they trust Biden more to handle the coronavirus pandemic and the future of healthcare in America.
But Trump remains more trustworthy than Biden on the economic spectrum, which is often the main concern of voters and will be a topic that will come up in the debate.
The president can use the economy as an ally to gain the trust of undecided voters who are worried about their pockets.
Although his opponent will seek to regain ground in that regard.
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[Biden says in an interview with Noticias Telemundo that he is concerned that Trump will speak of an "insurrection" if he loses the elections]
Perry noted that a foreign policy stumble by President Gerald Ford in 1976 cost him credibility and eventually the presidency by a narrow margin and Al Gore's "condescending style of speaking" may have hurt him in the 2000 contest, which he lost by a few. hundred votes in Florida.
Viral moment
The debate can become another crucial opportunity for candidates to speak to their rank and file.
Perry doubts that the Trump-Biden debates will tip the outcome, but stresses that Biden has much more to lose if he makes a colossal mistake.
"Nothing will hurt Trump among his base," he emphasized, "a disastrous misstatement by Biden or a terribly poor performance could divert enough votes to cause his candidacy to collapse, especially in a tight election" like the 3. of November.
[How To Vote By Mail If You Choose: What You Need To Know To Make Your Voice Count This November]
In 1992, Bill Clinton's resounding response when challenged by the economy renamed him "an understanding and empathetic public servant, rather than a womanizer who shunned military service", and "reduced his opponent - George Bush as a White Anglo-Saxon and Protestant elitist "in the minds of many voters, according to Perry.
In 1988, an emotionless response from Michael Dukakis to a hypothetical question involving his wife and the death penalty "cemented his image as a
political
nerd
," he added.
The most recent history reminds us to be cautious about the importance of the debates.
In 2016, polls placed Hillary Clinton as the winner of all three debates against Trump, but she lost the Electoral College vote.
In 2012, Barack Obama lost the first debate in the polls before bouncing back and winning reelection.
Now, in the age of social media, debates can focus on who creates the most shocking viral moments that drive narratives and flood comments on Facebook and Twitter, where candidates reach out to their grassroots followers, and where they also search to the elusive undecided voters.
"Our modern-age debates are really trying to create a spectacular moment or several spectacular moments that
social media
influencers will
retweet, while avoiding being an inspiration for the
newest internet
meme
," said Ed Lee, principal of Alben W. Barkley Forum for Debate, Deliberation, and Dialogue at Emory University.
Lee assures that the economic contrast, as happened in 2016, will be the most important.
"A lot of people voted for Trump despite his insults, callouses and blatant bravado," he says, "pocket problems are ultimately the deciding factors."
