Orbán triumphs over democracy - and the EU is watching

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Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán: The corona crisis exploited ice-cold

Photo: JOHANNA GERON / REUTERS

Perhaps the EU would have had a chance to stop EU countries like Hungary or Poland from sliding into autocracy.

But since Monday it has been clear: this will be difficult.

And last but not least, the federal government is responsible for this.

She currently holds the rotating EU Council Presidency, and thus the job of finding a compromise on an explosive question: Will constitutional sinners like Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán have the money canceled if he continues to eradicate the foundations of democracy in his country?

The answer of the federal government is: In principle yes.

But in practice, Orbán and Co. will have little to fear in the future - that much is clear after what the German government has now fed into the negotiations on the next seven-year budget of the EU.

Only EU money is worth protecting

This is a heavily watered down version of a proposal that has been in place since 2018.

According to him, governments that violate the rule of law should receive funding.

Only a majority of 15 of the 27 member states with at least 65 percent of the EU population could have prevented this.

But it was only in July that the heads of state and government decided that there should only be a threat of withdrawal of funds if a qualified majority of states were in

.

And now, of all people, the federal government - whose representatives vehemently advocated the sharp variant just a few months ago - has further watered down the mechanism.

The definition of the rule of law, which was broadly defined in the first version and which might even have protected things like freedom of the press, has been deleted.

Violations such as the undermining of the independence of the judiciary should now only result in a withdrawal of funds if they are directly at the expense of the EU budget.

This separation is strange.

How a judiciary that has been brought into line by a government as a whole is suddenly to function independently again in the monitoring of EU funds remains Berlin's secret.

An intact press landscape and civil society are also important for protecting public finances.

Financial scandals like Luxleaks, Panama Papers or the tax avoidance practices of US President Donald Trump would hardly have come to light without independent media.

An Orbán can also misuse EU funds to secure power because hardly anyone in Hungary is keeping an eye on them.

Emergency brake for the rule of law offenders

The narrowing of the budget is not the only concession to Orbán and Co. Convicts of the rule of law should now also have the opportunity to have the matter discussed at a summit of heads of state and government.

With this so-called emergency brake, you can delay the already complex procedure further.

The fact that Orbán is said to have failed with his demand to get a complete right of veto in the council of heads of government is, on balance, rather poor consolation.

In Berlin, the EU summit in July justified itself: the heads of state and government had just decided on a mechanism "to protect the budget" - and this dictum was followed.

That doesn't just sound like a lame excuse.

It also sends the fatal signal that the EU does not care so much what happens to democracy in its member states - as long as the budget is right in the end.

Sure, it is urgent if the next seven-year budget is to come into force on January 1, 2021.

And this time the matter is even more pressing: If the budget is delayed, the EU's 750 billion euro reconstruction package would also be delayed.

Risking that to protect the rule of law in Hungary or Poland would probably be difficult to convey in pandemic crisis countries such as Italy or Spain.

Orbán knows that, and he took advantage of it.

Because of the corona crisis, it is also unlikely that the EU Parliament - despite all the fluff - will prevent the watered-down rule of law protection by means of a budget blockade.

The consequences will soon be visible: Orbán will continue to be able to destroy the foundations of democracy unhindered - as long as he does not use the money from Brussels in such a brazen way that he turns a majority of the other states against him.

And that, that much is certain, one can wait a long time.

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