Alejandra Pataro
09/29/2020 - 15:00
Clarín.com
World
Are they just a show?
A mere electoral tradition?
Some kind of
Super Bowl
of elections?
Or do the
presidential debates
in the United States have such a relevant weight that they end up twisting the needle of the voters?
Not so much not so little
.
A study conducted by CNN concluded that debates influence
undecided voters.
And that help confirm the vote of those who are sure they will vote blue or red.
In the latter case, there will be nothing that a candidate says or does during the debate that can change the mind of a fervent Democrat or Republican.
The television duel will
strengthen the vote
of the hard or faithful bases.
Another piece of information that can answer the question of whether the debates are influential is in
the audience
that watches them: (many) millions of people!
The first television debate was that of Richard Nixon and John Kennedy, in 1960. And it was watched by 70 million people.
In 2016, the first of the three debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had an audience of
84 million people,
breaking all records.
While the debates
reveal nothing new
under the sun for
political analysts or politically informed individuals
, for the average public the duels between candidates
do bring
new information.
For political scientists, the debates
do not have
a great impact on the voter.
A "push"
When the elections are so close, it is more a wish than a certainty that a misstep or a success in a debate can define the final result (depending on who thinks).
Bob Dole VS.
Bill Clinton, in a debate in 1996. Photo: AP
According to the
Washington Monthly
, that presidential debates can "change the rules of the game" is a belief held almost universally by political experts and strategists.
In contrast, "political scientists" or political scientists are not so sure.
In fact, academics who have taken a closer look at the data have found that when it comes to shifting enough votes to decide the outcome of an election, presidential debates
rarely mattered.
The Monthly cites a study by political scientist
James Stimson
, who found little evidence of changes to the game in presidential campaigns between 1960 and 2000.
Nixon and Kennedy in the first television debates, in 1960. Photo: AP
"There is no case in which we can trace a substantial change in the debates," says Stimson.
At best, the debates provide
a "push"
in very close elections such as those of 1960, 1980 or 2000.
The debate is usually an opportunity to
get
to
know
the candidate who is challenging the incumbent president
better
.
In that sense, the duel can be a good showcase for the opponent.
The
gaffes
can also be
expensive at times.
Sighs, misconceptions or the famous scene of George HW Bush looking at the clock are examples of bad ideas to show on camera and live.
The press loves to look for a winner in debates, which is not always the same winner that people choose.
The public does not seek so much who was better but which of the two is
the most presidential.
Which of the two is
the best option
.
Balloons with cartoons George W. Bush and the Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (right), in New York, on the eve of a presidential debate, in 2004. Photo: EFE
As
journalistsresource.org
writes
, for political scientist
Thomas Holbrook
, the earliest debates, the first ones, are more powerful in terms of impact.
Holbrook says that "the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that the most important debate, at least in terms of acquiring information,
is the first
... The first debate takes place at a time when voters have less information at their disposal and a higher proportion of voters are likely to be undecided. "
After Tuesday's debate, there will be two more meetings between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
They are scheduled for October 15 and 22 in Miami, and in Nashville, Tennessee, respectively.
ap
Look also
Presidential debate in the United States: seven facts to pay attention
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Who will be the moderators of the presidential debates in the United States?