The security hole keeps getting deeper.
Faced with the health shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, the social accounts deficit will be around 44.4 billion euros at the end of 2020. An abysmal loss, however, less significant than what the commission of Secu accounts last June (52 billion), the recession, expected at -10%, being ultimately less severe than she feared.
To read also: Budget 2021: permanently sealed public accounts
"
Social security will sustainably suffer high deficits, undoubtedly over 20 billion euros over the next few years,
" warned Tuesday, September 29, Olivier Dussopt, the Deputy Minister in charge of Public Accounts.
After the state budget yesterday, the government presented this morning the 2021 Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), built in a completely exceptional environment and context.
The executive expects a loss of 27.1 billion euros for next year.
The ambition for this new health budget is also clearly displayed: in addition to the emergency data, the government intends to carry out the structural transformation of the system.
"
The crisis should encourage us to move forward, by consolidating and modernizing our social protection system
", explained Olivier Véran, Minister of Solidarity and Health.
Health insurance plagued by the crisis
The health crisis got the better of the government's good financial resolutions.
In the pre-Covid world, the deficit was expected at 5.1 billion euros ... At the time, the government hoped to put public finances in 2022 on a path to return to balance.
A possibility now overwhelmed by the health crisis.
"
The situation of our social accounts does not satisfy me
", hammered Olivier Véran, qualifying at the same time as "
Minister for the balance of social security accounts
".
This year, the four historic branches of Social Security (health, retirement, family, work accidents) are in the red.
A first since 2012.
Health Insurance was particularly affected by the health crisis, with a loss of 30 billion euros this year.
Due to the economic situation, Social Security has suffered heavy losses in income from taxes and contributions in recent months, estimated at 5.2 billion euros.
In particular, the government has put in place a set of measures to help businesses and self-employed workers, via exemptions from social contributions and deferral mechanisms.
Tests, masks, protective equipment for caregivers, respirators or even sick leaves, unforeseen health expenses have skyrocketed in recent months.
In 2020, 15 billion euros of exceptional expenses were incurred by health insurance, and the bill should grow next year, with 4.3 billion already provisioned, including 1.5 billion for a possible campaign of vaccination.
To this will be added 7.9 billion wage increases and investments, as part of the "
Ségur de la santé
" supposed to materialize the "
massive plan
" that Emmanuel Macron promised to the public hospital.
In particular, increases in the salaries of nursing staff up to an additional 183 euros per month are planned.
The massive investment plan will also be intended for the modernization of health and medico-social establishments, particularly in the fields of digital development.
Ultimately, health spending will jump 7.6% in 2020 - unprecedented - and grow another 3.5% in 2021 - a level unprecedented for more than ten years.
For 2021, the deficit of the health insurance branch is thus expected at 16.4 billion.
Read also: Explosion of waiting times for Covid-19 test results
All branches affected
The second most important branch of social security, pension insurance should suffer a deficit of 17.4 billion euros for 2020. For its part, the family branch will end the year with a loss of 3.3 billion euros. euros.
She had been in surplus for several years.
Great novelty for the family branch, the support for the extension of paternity leave to 28 days, against 14 days currently, announced last week by Emmanuel Macron.
This measure, which should come into force in July 2021, will cost 250 million next year and then 500 million in 2022. Despite these new expenses, the family branch should return to the green from next year, with an expected surplus of 0 , 9 billion in 2021.
Finally, also in surplus in recent years, the industrial accidents branch will experience a deficit of 0.3 billion in 2020, before an expected return to the green (+0.5 billion) in 2021. Negotiations between unions and employers on health in work must also be completed at the end of the year.
The PLFSS budget also provides for the creation of a fifth branch of Social Security to support autonomy.
Framed by the law of August 7, this new branch, which will bring together loans for disabled people and dependent elderly people, will be endowed with at least one billion euros.
The financing of this fifth branch is intended to be autonomous and its content will be enriched as part of the parliamentary discussion in the coming months.
How to pay the social debt?
"
The sustainability of our social system would not exist without a return to balance
", hammered Olivier Véran.
To finance new health care spending, the government has promised not to raise taxes on the French.
The deepening debt is not expected to weigh directly on households, and the government is also not forecasting further savings in the Social Security budget for 2021.
According to the 2021 PLFSS, the reimbursement of the social debt must be ensured by the extension of the Social Debt Redemption Fund (CADES) until 2033. In detail, a recovery of social security debt in the amount of 136 billion euros will be organized, i.e. 31 billion euros for past deficits, 13 billion for hospital debt assumptions and 92 billion for 2020-2023 forecast deficits.
While it is already planned to transfer 20 billion of debt from the Central Agency of Social Security Organizations (ACOSS) to CADES in 2020, transfers will continue in 2021 and the following years.
Expenses are also far from over.
This summer, the government voted this summer on the possibility of adding to the “
security hole
” up to 92 billion accumulated deficits over the period 2020–2023.
The executive seeks in particular to put back on the table the very thorny issue of pension reform as well as that of unemployment insurance.
But it risks meeting somewhat with opposition from the unions.
A new assessment of the overall deficit of pension funds is also expected in early October.
