Trump vs. Biden: what if we don't know the winner on election night?

This is undoubtedly the first time in history that a US presidential candidate has invited his voters to vote twice to demonstrate the possibility of defrauding.

And that this same candidate refuses to commit to recognizing the results of the election.

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"It could take weeks or months" to know the results, repeated the outgoing president during the first televised debate against Joe Biden, his Democratic rival.

The latter was much clearer, saying in front of the camera: "If it is not me, I will recognize the result".

In recent months, Donald Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the sincerity of the presidential election.

"It's going to end badly," he predicted again last night.

These repeated threats cast doubt on its intentions, and on the possibility of bringing multiple appeals in states where the results would be tight.

The weight of postal voting

During the televised debate, the Republican president clearly accused the Democrats of "fraud".

In his viewfinder, postal voting, which is likely to explode because of the health crisis.

Twenty-three of the fifty American states have decided to facilitate voting by mail.

And already, some fear that this new electoral situation will simply make the results illegible on the night of November 3, with a gap between the counting of the ballots taken out of the polls and that of the votes cast by mail.

“It is a scenario which becomes highly probable, confirms Dominique Simonnet, writer, journalist and specialist of the United States.

Donald Trump has been implying for weeks that he will not respect the results of the vote if they are against him.

If there is any uncertainty, one can expect multiple actions brought in different states.

With the risk of delaying the final result by a few days or a few weeks.

"

Republicans will travel more

Donald Trump has made the bet to politicize the subject of postal voting, to the point of presenting it as a real threat.

He invites his voters to come to the polling stations.

"I call on my supporters to go and vote and to monitor what is happening in the polling stations", he solemnly demanded during the debate.

"The risk is that some feel they are growing wings and going too far on the day of the vote," notes Jean-Eric Branaa, political scientist specializing in the United States, lecturer at the University of Paris 2-Assas.

America is fractured, split in two.

It is a speech that I find quite dangerous.

"

Conversely, Joe Biden keeps calling on voters to vote, whatever the way.

Result: postal voting would be more preferred by Democratic voters.

A poll published on August 17 by NBC News estimated the share of Joe Biden voters who said they were ready to vote by mail at 47%.

A rate that collapses to 11% for those of Donald Trump.

Ultimately, these proportions could be much higher because of the health crisis.

These millions of remote votes could well delay the arrival of the first estimates.

The postal service has already indicated that it risks being confronted with delivery delays.

Above all, it was left to each state to establish their own rules.

Some states will accept, for example, ballot papers arriving after November 3, as soon as the postage stamp shows that the vote took place on time.

“However, we can consider that there will not be millions of bulletins arriving after November 3,” nuance Jean-Eric Branaa.

The constitutional framework

The consequences could be significant in states where the two candidates will be neck and neck.

To the point that, on the other side of the Atlantic, some are already theorizing the “red mirage” (the red color symbolizing the Republican vote, and the blue the Democratic vote).

After the counting in the ballot box, Donald Trump would initially be given a winner… Before the counting of the votes by mail does not reverse the outcome of the vote.

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What would happen if Donald Trump decided to challenge the results?

"We would start with a recount of the ballots in the targeted states," explains Dominique Simonnet.

The federal courts would initially be responsible for examining the validity of the ballot.

This case arose in 2000, in Florida: the recount had lasted several weeks.

The federal court, which was Republican and on the side of George W Bush, had decided to stop the count as soon as the last counts gave him the winner, ”recalls the journalist.

As a last resort, the Supreme Court of the United States can in turn be seized.

We better understand the interest for Donald Trump to do everything to be appointed a conservative at the head of the Court, after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

If Donald Trump keeps repeating that the results may not be known for several months, he is forgetting an important fact: the Constitution. “The text could not be clearer. On January 20, at noon, the new president of the United States will have to be appointed, recalls Jean-Eric Branaa. The uncertainty cannot last for several months. Donald Trump's first term will necessarily end on that day. He will then attack a second, or will have to leave his place after having tried to discredit the sincerity of the election.