Benjamin Haddad is a researcher in international relations at the think-tank The Atlantic Council. He recently published
Paradise Lost: Trump's America and the End of European Illusions
(Grasset, 2019).
FIGAROVOX.- Donald Trump has just been hospitalized.
Do you think the next debate is likely to take place on October 16?
Benjamin HADDAD.-
The announcement of President Trump's positive coronavirus test has just plunged the campaign into deep uncertainty.
American political commentators always speak of an "October Surprise" which upsets the oiled plans of electoral strategists.
At this stage, it is impossible to make predictions about the next few weeks.
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An electoral or legal vagueness, in view of the current tensions, could have dramatic consequences.
Do you think that there is still any chance of heading towards a net result at the end of these elections?
The polls today are very favorable to Biden, but they were also favorable to Clinton at the same time four years ago.
We must remember the voting method.
The United States is a federal state where the president is elected by an electoral college drawn by the vote of each state, so “swing” states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida are key.
Biden is now almost certain to win the popular vote at the national level, thanks in particular to a very solid lead in California or New York, the sparsely populated, solidly democratic states.
Trump is unpopular and has maintained around 40% support since taking office.
But if his supporters mobilize en masse, he can repeat his feat of 2016: winning the electoral college by losing the popular vote, thanks to a short lead in the swing states.
In this case, it is to be bet that part of the left would contest the legitimacy of the president, as they have been doing for four years, preferring to insist on the role of Russia rather than questioning itself on social causes. profound effects of Trump's election.
Barring a tidal wave from Joe Biden (...) it is likely that the winner will not be named on election day
Conversely, if Biden narrowly wins in these states, Republicans risk challenging the validity of the ballots, including postal voting, a potential source of fraud according to Trump, particularly in the context of the Covid.
In short, barring a tidal wave from Joe Biden that would prevent any form of possible challenge, it is likely that the winner will not be chosen on election day, but that recounts and legal remedies will last for weeks.
Such a situation is not without precedent if we remember the 2000 election between Bush and Gore in Florida, but the climate here is much more tense and the composition of the Supreme Court, which could be called upon to decide, more politically contested.
The United States could enter a period of great political uncertainty, a distraction that authoritarian states like China, Russia or Turkey could be trying to exploit to advance their geopolitical pawns.
This is the case of Ankara in the Eastern Mediterranean or in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Europeans must prepare for a period of turbulence at the end of the year.
Let's talk about the last debate.
Some commentators are talking about the worst televised debate in US history.
Do you share their opinion?
US presidential debates are usually not major campaign turning points.
With rules harshly negotiated by both camps, these are often corseted and boring, offering few opportunities for direct confrontation between the candidates.
This debate was however eagerly awaited.
Because of Trump's personality of course, but also because he intervenes in an unprecedented context, a strange campaign marked by the pandemic and therefore the rules of social distancing: no large gatherings or meetings, and therefore few campaign images so far, or the opportunity for candidates to stand out.
The Democrats are also making a strategy, with a campaign that is not very dynamic, centered on the referendum around the divisive personality of President Trump to which they oppose the promise of a return to standards with a “decent” and “empathetic” Biden candidate.
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The outgoing president can no longer rely on his pre-Covid economic record, and therefore seeks to associate his opponent, rather centrist, with the violence and riots of recent months and with the far-left of his party.
It was a brutal, mediocre debate, marked by numerous interruptions and personal attacks.
Biden comes out rather the winner because he had more to lose, leading the polls: he has not stumbled or lost his temper in the face of Trump's attempts to destabilize.
But we do not say that he is enthusiastic about his energy either.
“Poutine's poodle”, “shut up!”… We saw a debate of rare violence where all blows seemed allowed.
The violence did not seem to be limited to American streets ...
The United States is going through a period of intense political polarization, exacerbated by electoral divisions, the structure of the media space with news channels mainly aimed at one camp, social networks which reinforce information bubbles, etc.
Trump is as much a symptom as an accelerator of this underlying trend.
Trump seeks to associate his opponent, rather centrist, with the violence and riots of recent months and with the far-left of his party
This can be seen, for example, in the votes of judges on the Supreme Court: these were once confirmed by the Senate with large bipartisan majorities as long as the judge was considered competent, even if he was conservative or progressive.
Today these votes are carried out almost on partisan lines and each nomination is the subject of very hard debates, as shown by the nomination of Amy Coney Barret one month before the poll.
In this context, the objective of the candidates is no longer to convince the possible undecided ones but to galvanize their own base to ensure the mobilization on the day of the election.
In this game, Trump, seen by his supporters as their last bulwark against a media and cultural elite dominated by the left and political correctness, has an advantage over his opponents.
But if it remains popular with its base, it is not the majority in the country.
His brutal style and his failure to manage the Covid tires many Americans.
