Eduardo Paladini
10/05/2020 - 10:56
Clarín.com
Politics
Although for the most part they were accompanying the official premise of prioritizing health over the economy during the coronavirus pandemic, the crisis is also beginning to
wear down the spirits of K voters
.
Thus, at least, it is shown by a
new study
accessed by
Clarín
, which compares the current situation with a year ago and measures expectations.
The work is carried out by the
D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein
consulting
firms
, who have been working together for a few years and analyze the
political, economic and social context every
month
.
In September they conducted a national survey of
1,318 cases
.
The first question of the survey asks about the past and the future, starting from the present:
"How do you evaluate the economic situation of the country today compared to last year and how do you suppose it will be a year from now?"
.
The general conclusion of the report is that "Argentines continue to express their
concern
about the current course of the economy, after more than six months since the announcement of mandatory isolation, which generates a
high level of pessimism
regarding the future in 2021" .
Minister Martín Guzmán retires from the Government House on October 1, after making economic announcements.
Photo Germán García Adrasti.
Put in numbers: 41% believe that the economy is "much worse" than last year and 33% "worse".
That is,
74% have a negative view
in the backward comparison.
The gap with those who say that it is now "better" (19%) or "much better" (5%) is 50 points.
This balance is one of the most negative since the new government took office.
In March
, the month the Covid arrived,
the ratio was - 53% and + 44%
.
That is, a negative result, but only 9 points.
In any case, perhaps more worrying than hindsight is the projection into the future, due to the impact that expectations have on people's economic behavior.
And there the pessimism was accentuated:
56% believe that the situation will get worse in a year
.
It is the highest record in this regard since Alberto Fernández assumed the presidency.
41% believe that it will be "much worse" and 15% "worse".
In contrast,
optimists score 42 points
: 23% choose "better" and 19% "much better" as answers.
In the qualitative analysis of the results, the crack appears.
Together for Change voters are clearly more critical of the current situation and see a dark future for the economy.
But even within the
followers of the Frente de Todos
there are
warning signs
.
49% of those polled who voted for the Fernándezes in 2019 believe that the economy is between "worse" (34%) and "much worse" (15%) than last year.
And
22% are pessimistic about 2021
: they see it between "worse" (10%) and "much worse" (12%).
In February, the month prior to the start of the pandemic in the country, K pessimists totaled just 6%.
Concern for the economy also appears when the
10 main problems for Argentines
are detailed
.
In September, "Inflation" was at the top again.
Second was "Insecurity / crime", but then "Uncertainty in the economic situation" and "Coronavirus: economic consequences" followed.
Among the
voters K
, although it marks the "Coronavirus: fear of the disease", second already appears "Coronavirus: economic consequences" and third the "Inflation".
Thus, the positive effect of the arrangement with the bondholders, which had generated hopes of a change in the climate among officials, seems to have quickly faded.
The
numbers that followed were terrifying
: the most shocking, perhaps, the confirmation that in Argentina there are more poor children from 0 to 14 years (56%) than non-poor (44%).
This, as
Clarín
was telling
, not only struck the eye on the economy.
Globally, Fernández's numbers have been dropping.
In the
D'Alessio IROL-Berensztein study
, the evaluation of the presidential administration, for example, is already clearly more negative (56%) than positive (44%).
The same as the personal image of the President (- 52% and + 44%).