Eduardo Paladini
10/06/2020 - 11:35
Clarín.com
Politics
At the beginning of April,
Clarín
exclusively told a story that linked Alberto Fernández to a poll.
At that time, during the start of the pandemic, the President had a
very high positive image
;
a phenomenon that reached, on a smaller scale, the head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
In parallel, the two main exponents of the crack, Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri, were doing very badly.
The data appeared in a study by the consulting firm
Taquion
and had reached Fernández, who was enthusiastic about those numbers.
Not only because they broke the logic of polarization, but because
it was not clear how it would hit his figure
the recent scandal over the queues of retirees to collect at banks.
This Tuesday, the same firm sent its latest national poll to the President.
His reaction is not yet known, but a graphic could worry him: it is the one that shows
Together for Change for the
first time
at the top of the Front of All, facing the 2021 election.
The survey, national and online, took place between September 17 and 22.
It included
2,014 cases
.
"We send them to various ministers and today (for this Tuesday) it reaches the President in full," they confirmed to
Clarín
from the consulting firm.
The director of
Taquion
,
Sergio Doval
, established a relationship with Alberto Fernández in 2017, when the current president was
Florencio Randazzo's campaign manager.
The electoral measurement appears at the end of a complete report of 57 pages.
The consultant specifically asked:
"Although there is a long way to go, thinking about next year's legislative elections, would you vote for representatives of what space?"
.
Four variants were offered as an answer and each one was shown to its referents.
The results:
1)
Together for Change
, with Larreta, Macri, María Eugenia Vidal and Patricia Bullrich:
30.7%
.
2)
Frente de Todos
, with Alberto F., Cristina, Sergio Massa and Axel Kicillof:
28.9%
.
3)
Liberals
, with José Luis Espert, Javier Milei and Ricardo López Murphy:
12.8%
.
4)
Left Front
, with Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman:
2.9%
.
Complete with
24.8%
the "
does not know / does not answer
".
Regarding the August measurement, there were
two inverse movements
that modified the top positions: the Frente de Todos fell almost 6 points (from 34.6% to 28.9%) and Juntos por el Cambio rose 2.5 (from 28, 2% to 30.7%).
Thus, from being up by 6.4 points, the ruling party was down by 1.8.
"In addition to showing dissatisfaction with the Government, a fact that appears in other variables in the survey, I think there was an effect since the ruling party chose Larreta as an enemy. Some people said: 'If you chose him as an enemy, why do you think you he can win, I would vote for him precisely because he can win you '", explained Doval to
Clarín
.
Alberto Fernández, Cristina Fernández, Axel Kicillof and Sergio Massa.
The quartet of the ruling party that Taquion measured.
And he expanded: "This, anyway, is very provisional and far from the election.
There is a long way to go
. It is more a reflection of discontent than a clear electoral trend. We will have to wait to analyze whether Cristina was wrong in choosing Larreta as a rival or if it wears it down all this time. But
the first reaction of a sector was to go towards the opposition
. "
Another data that the analyst highlighted are the almost 13 points that the liberal option of Espert, Milei and López Murphy adds: "It could be a sign of a certain tiredness with the crack. Of
people who got tired of Kircherism and macrism
and are going there in a legislative session. But here we will also have to wait to see what happens with polarization. In a moment prior to the presidential election, Roberto Lavagna measured about 16 points and seemed like a competitive option, and in a matter of weeks or a few months it dropped to 5 " .