Esteban Fuentes
10/06/2020 - 13:51
Clarín.com
Rural
A few days after soybean planting begins in Argentina, where it is estimated more than 18 million hectares, good news for the products arrives from the United States.
Is that the price of soybeans in the Chicago Market rises 10 dollars per ton today and reaches
the highest value in two years
since the trade war between the United States and China began.
In yesterday's wheel the price of the oilseed had been 375 dollars per ton but today it rises almost 3%
and is located at 385 dollars per ton for the Position January 21
at one hour of closing.
"From the fundamental point of view, we found a series of elements that would be supporting prices, both on the demand side and on the supply side. To begin with, we came with China very active in the American market, with a behavior that expects to continue forward. In this context, last week, the USDA revealed that the physical inventory of stocks in the US would be more limited than those that had been estimated, that is, lower supply. Particular impact is expected in the next USDA monthly report, on Friday, October 9, where the agency will have to review its own numbers, "explained Ariel Tejera, an analyst at Grains de Grassi.
To this, he added, news from Brazil is added, with a
climatic scenario that would not be accompanying the beginning of planting
.
"This leads to speculation that the US will have to make a greater effort to supply China until the junction with the entry of merchandise from the neighboring country," he said.
On the other hand, not a minor factor, he remarked, is
the actions of hedge funds
, who are betting heavily on the upside.
This segment has been accumulating a historical volume of purchased contracts.
"Although, over the last few weeks, this behavior has been adding fuel to the price rally, a warning light is lit, since a change in expectations could lead to disarming positions, deepening a fall in values "he explained.
In the local market, this rise in Chicago had a favorable impact, raising the values of all positions in Rofex Matba.
For example, the position November and January closed higher with almost 2 dollars per ton.
All this occurs after the
temporary lowering of withholdings on soybeans and its derivatives announced by the Government last Thursday with the objective
of making it official in Argentina this Monday in the Official Gazette (and taking effect as of today).
to rush currency settlements.
Soybeans, which today pay a 33% export tax, will be taxed from Tuesday to 30%, while as of November 1 the duty will be 31.5%.
On December 1, the rate will become 32% and will return to 33% as of January 1.
The almost 20 additional products will have the same type of treatment, only from different tariff bases.
This is the case of the withholdings on soybean meal (drops from today to 28%), crude soybean oil (28%), refined soybean oil in containers (22%) and other refined soybean oils (27 %).
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